A Week of Trouble for the Government
Coalition troubles, deportation row, and a scheduled no-confidence debate
While I won’t be frequently writing “briefing-style” weekly summaries of Thai politics here at The Coffee Parliament, so many things happened this week that will be of interest for all Thai politics watchers that it was worth writing a brief recap.
Coalition Troubles
This past month, I’ve written both about how a cabinet reshuffle is seen as likely in the near future, along with the expanding influence of the Bhumjaithai Party as it continues to act as an internal opposition party within the government. This week saw two noteworthy Bhumjaithai-related developments.
On Tuesday, the Department of Special Investigations (DSI) met to decide whether to take up a case on last year’s Senate elections. It has been alleged that collusion and bloc voting happened during those elections — they were not open to the general electorate and was instead composed of a series of votes by self-selecting candidates who chose amongst themselves — and Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wetchayachai announced there was sufficient evidence for the DSI to review the case. As The Nation argues, “the decision has sparked speculation that Pheu Thai is attempting to uproot the so-called “blue faction” of senators linked with its coalition partner, Bhumjaithai.” The DSI ended up deciding to postpone their decision on whether or not to pick up this case, but that was sufficient to spark fury from the “dark blue” block of Senators who are now seeking to impeach both the Minister of Justice and the DSI Chief.
Catching wind of the Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai discord, reporters have been pressing both Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul on whether or not the coalition will hold. Anutin said to reporters that he “loves the Prime Minister the most,” but that he “both loves and fears” her father Thaksin (there is probably a fair degree of truth to this statement!) But you always know that there is trouble brewing inside when political actors are trying so hard to profess their affection for each other in public. And it turns out that Anutin didn’t love the Prime Minister enough to pay for her meal at a coalition dinner on February 25th (the dinner had been held to signal that coalition remains unified). The practice of splitting the bill, called “American sharing” in Thai, meant that every attendee paid 7,000 baht. There’s been speculation, as I noted earlier this week, that this is Bhumjaithai’s way of making it clear the coalition is a marriage of convenience and every party is on their own.
A Deportation Row
Dominating the international headlines recently is the news that Thailand deported at least 40 Uyghurs back to China. I won’t summarize what has happened (here is a BBC report) but the criticism was swift. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned it, and so did UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy. The government maintains that the Uyghurs left “voluntarily,” but this has been called into question.
The case will have both domestic and international repercussions. Already, the US State Department has issued a travel alert for Thailand — not a good sign for an economy dependent on tourism — with other countries also following. But it tracks with the Thai government’s recent moves to garner favor with Beijing, with Paetongtarn explaining that these deportations had been discussed with the Chinese government during her visit to China earlier in February. (I wrote about this visit here). A more complete analysis of Thai foreign policy under Pheu Thai will need a full post, but one can wonder if a bigger rift with the US is now being opened as Thailand under Paetongtarn appears to continue shifting closer towards Beijing. Domestically, this issue might have some staying power in the newspapers as a House committee seeks to grill ministers on the deportations.
No-Confidence Debate Coming Up
Looking ahead, a no-confidence debate has been scheduled for March 24th after the opposition submitted a motion to the Speaker this past week. The People’s Party leader Nattaphong Rueangpanyawut said: “We cannot trust the current government to govern the country because the Prime Minister lacks the qualifications, knowledge, and the will to resolve the people's problems. She has shown no responsibility as Prime Minister.”
But the question that has been stirred is not whether the opposition will attack Paetongtarn (that is a given) but instead whether her father will be a target. Nattaphong accused Paetongtarn of allowing Thaksin to wield influence over state affairs, signaling that he believes Thaksin is fair game for the opposition. The government seems to think otherwise, with Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham saying that “Thaksin isn't the prime minister, and the opposition has no authority to examine him.” In the end, it will come down to whether or not Speaker Wan Muhammad Noor Matha will allow Thaksin to be a topic of debate, and it seems that here the answer is no as well. He has already warned opposition MPs that they could face legal action if they “implicate outsiders.”
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Thanks, Ken. Terrific work. Please keep it up. BTW, I was not aware of the Thai expression “American sharing” which left me scratching my head ! Good stuff. Many thanks.
Thanks Ken for this review. The deportation of Ugyhurs is a shameful development. It is quite clear who the Thai government should be deporting: those foreign "educators" who come over, spread "maths Jam" across the country, and sit around in swanky villas trying to negotiate deals with Putin and Zelensky!