Good question — I'm not quite sure what to make of it. I haven't been able to find their demographic data, which I think is important for knowing whether it was genuinely nationally representative. Their 2023 numbers were off in important ways (only 3% for UTN when in reality they got over 12% of the vote, 9% for Bhumjaithai on the party list when the party ended up winning only 3%) which makes me wonder a little about the methodology. I think that these one-off polls are difficult to make sense of, which makes the NIDA Poll a little easier to interpret because they conduct multiple polls, so we can track change over time.
The Nation Poll had a quarter of respondends being undecided. Then came the ThaiPBS tracking poll (with doubtfull methodology). Finally, today, Thai Rath came forward with an online poll of 55,505 people. The paper almost gave an election recommendation when it stated, "Thais tired of coalition governments; dream of the People’s Party forming a single-party government in the 2026 election." As has been the case previously, elections are also about the most accurate methodology for mapping the opinions of the Thai voters.
What you make of the large door to door National polls numbers out today?
Good question — I'm not quite sure what to make of it. I haven't been able to find their demographic data, which I think is important for knowing whether it was genuinely nationally representative. Their 2023 numbers were off in important ways (only 3% for UTN when in reality they got over 12% of the vote, 9% for Bhumjaithai on the party list when the party ended up winning only 3%) which makes me wonder a little about the methodology. I think that these one-off polls are difficult to make sense of, which makes the NIDA Poll a little easier to interpret because they conduct multiple polls, so we can track change over time.
It looks reasonably likely that Pheu Thai gets to be kingmaker again. I wonder who they'll pick.
The Nation Poll had a quarter of respondends being undecided. Then came the ThaiPBS tracking poll (with doubtfull methodology). Finally, today, Thai Rath came forward with an online poll of 55,505 people. The paper almost gave an election recommendation when it stated, "Thais tired of coalition governments; dream of the People’s Party forming a single-party government in the 2026 election." As has been the case previously, elections are also about the most accurate methodology for mapping the opinions of the Thai voters.