Cabinet Reshuffle; Hun Sen Attacks; Chaikasem Nitisiri's Readiness to be PM
A busy week in Thai politics
Update 6/28 10:00am: I was reasonably sure that the cabinet reshuffle was final given that many media agencies said it had already been submitted for royal endorsement. But it turns out that things may not be so final after all. We are now hearing that some coalition partners may be threatening to leave because they are dissatisfied with this list. Stay tuned…
Reports say that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has now submitted the new cabinet lineup for royal endorsement. It is a very expansive reshuffle, so I will not be going into every new appointment, but here are some of the most noteworthy changes:
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is taking up a concurrent post as Minister of Culture. This is an unusual choice; usually if a Thai prime minister will take on a concurrent post, it will be the defense portfolio. I suspect that the official explanation for this will be that promoting “soft power” is a government priority and the prime minister wants to oversee it personally. But the more likely unofficial explanation is that the government is wary of the Constitutional Court potentially suspending Paetongtarn as early as next week, and taking on a concurrent post would allow her to continue attending cabinet. (Some analysts call this the “Prayut model,” as former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha continued to attend cabinet as defense minister while he was suspended in 2022).
Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai is moving from the defense portfolio to become Ministry of Interior. This post was vacated by Anutin Charnvirakul when Bhumjaithai left the coalition, and it was the position that Thaksin Shinwatra explicitly said that Pheu Thai needs back in order to realize its policies effectively. As one of the top figures in Pheu Thai, Phumtham will also now get to oversee the critical bureaucratic appointments that Pheu Thai will make as it tries to reduce the clout of the “dark blue” network.
General Natthaphon Narkphanit is being promoted to Minister of Defense. Previously, he was an advisor to Prayut and is in the cabinet thanks to the United Thai Nation Party’s quota. Appointing a military man will help to shore up the government’s national security credentials at a time of tensions with Cambodia, and could also help reduce pressure on the government as Phumtham had become increasingly unpopular while serving as defense minister.
One highly interesting appointment is Jatuporn Buruspat, who is a bureaucrat serving as permanent secretary of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, as Ministry of Commerce. Previous reports have linked him to the New Opportunities Party, which does not yet have any MPs. But reports also said that the Suchart Chomklin faction of the United Thai Nation Party wants to move to that party, so that likely explains why it would receive a ministerial allocation.
The leader of the Kla Tham Party, Narumon Pinyosinwat, is moving from her position overseeing the Ministry of Agriculture to become Minister of Education. Her deputy will be Anudit Nakornthap, who is fresh from defecting to Kla Tham from Thai Sang Thai, while another Kla Tham member Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn will become the new Minister of Agriculture.
Democrat secretary-general Dech-it Khaothong was explicit in saying previously that he wanted to become Deputy Minister of Interior, and he will get his wish. The Democrats also receive one more ministerial post, with Chaichana Dechdecho to become Deputy Minister of Health.
The Chart Thai Pattana Party, who previously had only its leader Varawut Silpa-archa in the cabinet as Minister of Social Development and Human Security, is receiving one more cabinet post with its deputy leader Anucha Sasomsap likely to become Deputy Minister of Public Health.
Meanwhile, the Chart Pattana Party, which previously did not qualify for any cabinet seats due to having only three MPs, now gets one ministerial allocation with its leader Tewan Liptapallop likely to become Minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office.
All in all, Bhumjaithai’s departure opened up a lot of new cabinet vacancies, and every coalition partner was able to bargain for more seats. They will also be satisfied with what has not changed: the United Thai Nation Party has kept the Energy and Industry ministries, despite the pre-Hun Sen debacle rumors that Pheu Thai were looking at reallocating those roles as well.
Hun Sen strikes again
Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen has continued to dominate media attention in Thailand with his threats to continue exposing the Shinawatras. His latest gambit was to threaten on June 26 to “expose [Thaksin’s] treasonous actions, including betraying the Thai monarchy.”
But the livestream he held the next day did not contain a smoking gun. He accused Thaksin of faking his illness after his release from the Police General Hospital; as ThaiPBS writes, “Hun Sen recounted his February 21 visit to Thaksin, who was on parole at the time and living in his residence in Bangkok. He said Thaksin was not sick, but put on a neck collar and used other props to appear ill when taking a photo with him.” If Hun Sen does release visual evidence of this, it could prove consequential as it could be highly damaging to Thaksin’s legal defense in his court case on whether he was critically ill. But absent that, Hun Sen’s words will not amount to much.
Hun Sen also claims that Paetongtarn asked for his advice on her cabinet reshuffle — which, once again, would be incendiary if he has an audio recording, but does not have much meaning otherwise. The former Cambodian prime minister also said that he was critical in assisting former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra with fleeing Thailand — an attempt to remind people that the Shinawatras owe him a debt of gratitude.
So far, nothing new has come out that will be fatal to the Pheu Thai government, but Hun Sen’s ability to constantly stay in the Thai headlines is at the very least unhelpful and at worst immobilizing to Thailand as people wonder whether or not the Shinawatras are being blackmailed. It is noteworthy that since the initial voice call leak, Thaksin has said virtually nothing to the media — an uncharacteristic silence.
And one more thing on Chaikasem Nitisiri
Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai’s third PM candidate, seems to be positioning himself as ready to take over as the next prime minister. When asked recently on whether he could become prime minister, he said:
It’s not necessary for me to [become prime minister]. If we can avoid that, then let other people do it. I’ve done a lot. If it’s necessary, then I can do it because there’s nothing much to it. But let’s not get to it being required. There’s so many people. Let the younger generation do it. However, if it is necessary for the nation, then I am ready. I can do it all. There’s no problem.
He also clarified rumors on his ill health by discussing that he has fully recovered from his stroke:
I'm now healthy and everything is completely fine because the blood clot at the back of my head has completely dissolved. At my most recent doctor's visit, he said I was incredibly lucky because the large clot had dissolved and even took a smaller one with it. Yesterday, I was able to play golf comfortably. Now I feel at peace and relieved.
Given Paetongtarn’s vulnerabilities, it is very conceivable that Pheu Thai will need to call on Chaikasem’s services soon.
Thank you Ken for a comprehensive overview. Looks like the government will survive as none of its allies want an election.