Is a Cabinet Reshuffle Imminent?
Speculation swirls over a potentially major ministerial movement
In the past few days, chatter about a potential cabinet reshuffle has become feverish, with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, her father Thaksin Shinawatra, and cabinet officials all fielding questions from reporters about whether or not one is imminent. For now, Paetongtarn has insisted that there will be “no reshuffle.” So why are changes in cabinet the talk of the town in Bangkok?
One reason has to do with timing. As NationWeekend has observed, it has been a Thaksinite tradition to conduct a reshuffle roughly once every six months. (Someone will have to fact-check the time, but Thaksin did reshuffle his cabinet several times when he was prime minister). When asked about a reshuffle while attending former deputy prime minister Suwat Liptapallop’s birthday party, Thaksin said that he has discussed this matter with the prime minister and agrees that “it is not time yet, as everyone is still working well together.” (He also said, for good measure when asked, that he could not award Suwat a cabinet post as a birthday present because he is “merely the prime minister’s father).
But the denials from both daughter and father have done little to quell the rumors — and the media have continued to speculate about a potential reshuffle after an upcoming confidence debate in parliament.
In particular, both Paetongtarn and Thaksin have been asked about whether or not Agriculture Minister Naruemon Pinyosinwat will be replaced by Captain Thammanat Promphao. Naruemon is currently head of the Kla Tham Party, which houses Thammanat’s breakaway faction after his “declaration of independence” from Palang Pracharath (now in opposition). When asked if she might transfer Naruemon to be deputy minister of finance instead, Paetongtarn said that she has not signed off on any such proposal.
There is a political logic to replacing Naruemon with Thammanat: Kla Tham’s MPs are loyal mainly to him, and he is the de facto leader of the party. But this matter is far from straightforward. The removal of former prime minister Srettha Thavisin last year on the grounds that he made an unethical appointment has set a new standard in Thai politics. Thammanat famously has a long history of legal trouble behind him. Would Paetongtarn risk losing her position over this appointment — a court case is certain if she goes ahead with this — after seeing what happened to her predecessor?
As reported by Prachachat Turakij, other potential cabinet reshuffles include:
Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan being replaced
Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathvibhaga being moved to the Ministry of Justice (This may actually be, all things considered, a win for Pirapan, as earlier speculation has been that he was to be removed from the cabinet entirely, with rumors swirling around internal party conflict in the United Thai Nation Party)
Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong being moved to the Ministry of Social Development and Human Security
Social Development and Human Security Minister Varawut Silpa-archa being moved to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (this move, which would allow for full utilization of Varawut’s excellent English, has been rumored as early as before the formation of Paetongtarn’s first cabinet.
It is worth noting that this list does not include any changes to Bhumjaithai’s quotas — the party is the second largest coalition party and one that Pheu Thai must keep satisfied.
There is a decent chance that a good chunk of this speculation turns out to be incorrect, if a reshuffle does happen: unforeseen changes can happen as coalitional bargaining continues. We should get more clarity after the battles in the parliamentary confidence debate, which the opposition intends to schedule with the Speaker at the end of this month, wraps up.