Takeaways from Thailand's 2025 PAO Elections
The People's Party claim their first victory, but the "Big Houses" remain strong
On Saturday, Thailand held elections for Provincial Administrative Organization (PAO) Chairman positions in 47 out of 77 provinces. Barring a highly unexpected dissolution of parliament, this will be the only major set of elections in Thailand this year.
Before we begin dissecting some of the key results of these elections, it’s probably worth taking some time to recap how local governance in Thailand works. Thailand’s local governments operate on a parallel system where the provincial governors are centrally appointed by the Ministry of Interior, while the election casts a vote for the Chairman of the Provincial Administrative Organizations. (Elections also exist for lower levels of local government, such as the Subdistrict Administrative Organizations and village chiefs, as well_. Voters also choose members of the Provincial Administrative Councils which act as the legislative bodies for the province. (Is this confusing? Yes! There has been proposals to merge the parallel bodies together, but that’s a topic for another day).
And without further ado, here are some of the key takeaways from the 2025 local elections.
1. The People’s Party claim their first provincial-level victory
Local elections have not been kind to the People’s Party (PP) and its two progressive predecessors (Future Forward and Move Forward). In 2020, the Progressive Movement led by Future Forward founder Thanathorn Juangroongrueangkit had contested 42 PAO races and won precisely zero. In the sporadic PAO elections held since then, the PP have not fared better. But the PP pulled off a major victory on Saturday by winning the Lamphun PAO race. It was a tight race, but the PP candidate Veeradet Phupisith managed to beat former PAO chairman (and a former cabinet minister ) Anusorn Wongwan.
On one hand, the party underperformed its own stated goals. Party leader Nattaphong Rueangpanyawut had said that they hoped to win at least one PAO chairman race in each region of the country, and winning only one race out of seventeen may prove to be a disappointment. (At a press conference before the results were out, Nattaphong said he had seen good signs coming out of four provinces).
But given that the party has never succeeded in winning a PAO race before, the breakthrough in Lamphun does represent a major step forward for the party. PAO elections have long thought to put the PP at a particular disadvantage because of the emphasis that these elections place on longstanding local ties and political patronage. In addition, the lack of early voting means that the demographics most likely to vote for the PP — i.e. younger people — are less likely to turn out as they may not be able to return from Bangkok in time to vote. At the very least, the Lamphun victory shows that it is not impossible for the PP to win.
At the same time, there will now be immense pressure on the party to deliver in Lamphun. The PP and its predecessors have often been accused of lacking any executive experience — after all, it has never won a significant position with executive authority — and Lamphun thus provides the first test for the party to prove that it can govern. Expect over the next few years for Lamphun PAO to be placed under a microscopic spotlight, where any successes will be magnified by the party and any failures put under unrelenting criticism from the party’s opponents.
Warning signs for Pheu Thai?
One of the infuriating features of Thailand’s local elections is that a number of candidates run as “independents,” despite the fact that their true party affiliation is an open secret. This can make it difficult to ascertain the true number of victories that each party has won. Based on the Thai PBS numbers, Pheu Thai has won 18 — the most of any party, and thus at first glance a sign of their continued electoral strength.
Look closer, however, and there are some warning signs. Thaksin Shinawatra had personally campaigned in nine provinces, and of those, Pheu Thai lost four. One was Sri Saket, where Vichit Traisoranakul, father of Traisurlee Traisoranakul, who serves as Anutin Charnvirakul’s secretary in the Ministry of Interior, won the PAO seat, defeating a former Pheu Thai MP. In a clear fight between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai in one of the Pheu Thai heartlands, Bhumjaithai came out on top. It’s too early to say that this is a sign of Thaksin’s waning popularity — Pheu Thai had a string of victories just last year when Thaksin personally campaigned But the defeats certainly open up room for some scorn. For example, Rachada Dhaniderek, a former Democrat MP, has already congratulated the Traisoranakuls and wondered if Thaksin will realize he “isn’t as holy as he thinks he is.”
Pheu Thai also had some close calls that the party leadership will want to flag. In Chiang Mai (Thaksin’s birthplace, and another province he campaigned in), Pheu Thai won by just around 20,000 votes. In 2023, Move Forward had swept in seven constituencies out of ten. The PAO election reinforces the perception that Pheu Thai may have difficulty winning back its previously-loyal northern strongholds, something the party must do if it hopes to claw back ground at the next general election.
3. Another good day for the “big houses”
The local dynasties that dominate provincial politics — known colloquially as the “big houses” — had another good day. I’ve previously written about how these clans showed signs of weaknesses in the 2023 general elections, but overall the PAO elections showed that at the local level at least, they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. A collection here of some miscellaneous storylines:
Bhumjaithai did not officially endorse any local candidates, but the “dark blue” big houses won big in several provinces, including northeastern provinces such as Amat Charoen, Bueng Kan, Buriram (unsurprisingly), and northern provinces such as Chiang Rai (another former Pheu Thai stronghold).
One notable defeat for Bhumjaithai (but victory for the local big house): In the final days of campaigning, former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva made a splash when he campaigned for Sarode Samad, who is known to have ties with Bhumjaithai, in Phattalung province. Abhisit, of course, had previously pledged that he would never join a party other than the Democrats, and his intervention raised chatter on whether or not he might be joining Bhumjaithai. (Anutin thanked him for the effort). It appears that Abhisit was simply assisting an associate, and in any case, Sarode lost to the Thammaphet “big house” clan, who had been assisted by Akanat Promphan, secretary-general of the United Thai Nation Party.
Party drama in Suphanburi: the longtime domain of the Chart Thai Pattana party, the incumbent PAO chairman Boonchoo Chansuwan had won five races and worked with the CTP for twenty years. He recently defected to Pheu Thai, however, after internal conflict, and so CTP leader Varawut Silpa-archa permitted party member Udom Prongfah to mount a challenge using the party’s branding. In a sign that the Silpa-archa brand is still strong, Udom managed to unseat Boonchoo with ease.
Thus concludes the only major round of nationwide elections before the next general election — although with Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt’s term expiring next year, we’ll also be gearing up soon for local elections in the nation’s capital.
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Thanks for the perceptive insights, which are impossible to glean from any English language media in Thailand