Today’s update is brief in length but significant in its implications. Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been sent back to prison after a Supreme Court ruling that his prison sentence had not been carried out appropriately, as he stayed at the Police-General Hospital during the sentence. For more about the background to this case, please see here.
The Supreme Court ruled that Thaksin’s illnesses were not critical and could have been treated as an outpatient. Thaksin, according to the Court, had also extended his hospitalization by undertaking non-urgent surgery. Because Thaksin had previously received a royal pardon that reduced his prison sentence for corruption from eight years to one, Thaksin would now have to serve his prison sentence again.
Thaksin’s actions over the past week have puzzled many. A few days earlier he had abruptly flown to Dubai during a flight that he said was originally intended for Singapore. But confounding many skeptics, Thaksin made good on his promise to return to Thailand for the court ruling. His team released a statement following the ruling, where he said that he wants to “look forward, so that everything from the past will conclude, whether it be legal issues or conflict that is connected with me.” Paetongtarn Shinawatra, his daughter, said that Thaksin had “made history” as the first prime minister to go to prison. (This is not quite accurate, as Plaek Phibulsongkram had been briefly imprisoned after the Second World War).
The obvious immediate reaction is that Pheu Thai will be weakened — the party brand is inextricably linked to Thaksin, and after his return from self-exile he had been an active campaigner for the party. But how much weaker is hard to say: the party has already been considerably damaged before this ruling, after its latest stint in government. Some are arguing that this could have a rebound effect on Thaksin’s popularity, but absent actual evidence it’s simply too early to say for sure. A key Pheu Thai figure said that the party is “damaged but has a future.” Whether other MPs agree will be borne out closer to the next election: watch if some start voting with their feet and move parties.
At the very least, Pheu Thai is likely to have a future that is quite different from the past. We have witnessed a remarkable change in fortunes for Thaksin, who just recently was calling himself the “national clerk” and whose daughter was serving as prime minister. Now, Thaksin himself is in prison, Paetongtarn has been removed from office, and the Pheu Thai Party is in the opposition as Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul began forming his government. A mere two years after Thaksin first returned to Thailand, the party’s position has changed from the critical player in Thailand’s triangular politics to the camp currently with the least bargaining power.
Thaksin has been is politics since the 1990s. His resilience in proven, and he may still find a way to bounce back. But for the first time in over two decades, one can credibly wonder whether Thai politics is entering a new era where the Shinawatras are no longer a dominant force.
Surely Thaksin and PT will gain some support for manning up to face the music.
And PT will put PP in a spot in the next censure debate when they ask PP if they support Bhumjaithai regarding the Senate collision case.
PP will be damned if they do, ( support corruption) and damned if they don't
( anger Bhumjaithai).
I’ll be interested to see if Thaksin is treated like a regular Thai criminal and is put 10 to a cell or more and if he suffers the indignities that other Thai men suffer when becoming convicts. It’s at least good to see that a poo yai elite member in Thailand is actually going to atone for some of the sins of the past. Just lately with the Red Bull story, and a bevy of many others, it did seem like there was a two-tier justice system, but at least with this verdict, nobody can say that that the law has not been applied. That said, I still think one year for his crimes is nowhere near enough although, at his age, it will be a harsh learning curve if he really is treated like a regular convict while in prison.