The End of the Chuan Democrats?

What the Nakhon Sri Thammarat byelection tells us about national politics

Former Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai campaigning for Chinawon Boonyakiat in Nakhon Sri Thammarat. (Image credits)

Chuan Leekpai has had a storied career. The only person to have served as both Prime Minister and Speaker of the House of Representatives not once but twice, he held immense sway over the Democrat Party, until relatively recently one of the largest forces in Thai parliamentary politics, for three decades. But the 2023 general election marked an immense turn in his fortunes. With the Democrat Party reduced to just 25 seats — earning its lowest share of the popular vote in its history — Chuan found himself as the elder of a dramatically changed party that no longer appeared to want him.

Gone were almost all of the party-list MPs who had been loyal to Chuan’s brand of clean and stridently anti-Thaksin politics. The parliamentary party was now composed mostly of constituency MPs who owed little to the coattails of the Democrats’ national brand. Wielding far more influence now is the new party leader, Chalermchai Sri-on, who in the great tradition of medium-sized Thai political parties proved willing to sacrifice the Democrats’ long-held principles to cut a deal with its arch-enemy the Pheu Thai Party in return for ministerial positions. Chuan’s faction in the party, who refused to vote for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and refused to affirm confidence in her government during a censure debate earlier this year, was reduced to four MPs.

How popular Chalermchai and the Thaksin-friendly Democrat leadership are with the Democrats’ (dwindling) grassroots is unclear. A massive Democrat Facebook group with over 70,000 members changed their name to “Reclaiming the Democrat Party,” however, after the new leadership was elected — which on its own would demonstrate that most party members would rather align with the traditional party elders like Chuan. But what does the broader electorate think?

The by-election today in the Southern province of Nakhon Sri Thammarat’s District 8, traditionally a Democrat stronghold, became a chance to find out. The by-election was triggered after the Bhumjaithai candidate who previously won the seat was disqualified. For the by-election, the Democrats nominated Chinaworn Boonyakiat, a former local MP (and former Minister of Education in the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration). Chinaworn was clear about where he stood, writing in the lead-up to the election:

Chuan Leekpai is a person who has dedicated his life to democracy and what is right. In the past nine terms, I have always stood beside Chuan, regardless of whether we were in opposition or government…Today, I would like to be another voice for the people, so that the Democrats will return to being a political party that we can once again take pride in.

Although the entire party supported Chinaworn, Chuan took a special interest in supporting him and campaigned in Nakhon Sri Thammarat very aggressively (an impressive feat for the 86-year old former premier). Posters featuring Chinaworn and Chuan specifically included a quote from Chuan asking for “an opportunity for Nong Chinaworn to work with me.”

The election results proved crushing, however, for the Democrats. The winner was Kongkiat Ketsombut from the Kla Tham Party (led by Captain Thammanat Promphao). Kongkiat, a son in law of Chinawon, won 38,680 votes. The previous victor, Bhumjaithai, came in second with 28,417 votes. In third place was the People’s Party, which has never fared well in the South, at 6,811 votes. The Democrats? Chinawon came in at fourth place, winning only 4,190 votes.

There will be no way to spin this result for the Democrats in Chuan’s faction. His unique appeal in the Southern region — a combination of regional pride in this highly successful Southern politician and his brand of electoral morality — appears to have waned off. The Democrats used to argue that their party appeal allowed them to win over incorruptible Southern voters whose votes could not be bought, which made the region a uniquely impregnable stronghold. Now, Chinawon argued that there was “historic vote buying” that made it impossible for him to win.

What does this mean for the Democrats? For one, the Chuan-led wing of the party may truly be dead. His opponents will be able to argue that in a by-election where Chuan went all-in for a candidate who pledged to stand by his side, his personal appeal ended up being worth only a fourth-place finish. While Chuan’s supporters may argue that the party’s brand has been tarnished beyond repair by its association with Thaksin, that will not explain why the top two winners — Kla Tham and Bhumjaithai — were also coalition members who are equally comfortable with Pheu Thai. Chuan’s influence, already at a nadir prior to the byelection, may have taken an irreversible blow in the party.

The byelection also reaffirms a key conclusion from the 2023 general election — that the Southern provinces are looking for alternatives and are not looking to return to the days of Democrat hegemony. Thammanat and Bhumjaithai are not traditional vote-winners in this region, but the Democrat leadership will now be frantically concerned about whether or not they will be able to continue eclipsing the Democrats in the rest of the region come the next generaection. It is not just the Chuan faction. The party as a whole, it seems, has come closer than ever to extinction.