Bangkok's Quasi-Independent Streak
New groups emerge ahead of the Bangkok Metropolitan Council elections
Having just been through a general election and a national referendum, Thais can be forgiven for feeling a little bit of election fatigue. But Bangkokians need to gear up for another major set of elections, with the capital due to hold local elections on June 28.
This year the race for governor has felt decidedly low-energy. The incumbent, Chadchart Sittipunt, won a massive election victory in 2022, receiving over fifty percent of the vote against a crowded field that included several qualified and well-known candidates. A NIDA poll last year revealed that around 78 percent of respondents were either very satisfied or quite satisfied with Chadchart’s performance as governor. As such, any candidate seeking to prevent Chadchart’s re-election are setting themselves up for a difficult task. The People’s Party candidate Chaiwat Sathawornwichit straightforwardly acknowledged Chadchart’s high approval ratings and said unseating him will not be easy. Meanwhile, the Democrats admitted that Chadchart’s strength was making it difficult for them to attract capable challengers to take him on.1
With the race only feeling slightly more lively than the Martian surface right now, I’ll cover the gubernatorial election in more detail when the energy hopefully picks up as campaigning starts in honest. Instead, the focus today will be on the Bangkok Metropolitan Council,2 the legislative body of Bangkok’s administration.
Pro-Chadchart groups emerge
Pheu Thai won the most seats on the BMC in 2022, with 20 out of 50 seats. It was thus a surprise when the party decided that it would not field any BMC candidates this year, although the party would allow members to run and use the party logo if they wish. Yet the decision by the former champions not to officially support any BMC candidates immediately set off a torrent of party-switching.
Khrungthep Thurakij has a list of all current Bangkok councillors here and their current electoral plans. It is evident that the Pheu Thai councillors are splitting in different directions. A number may decide to take up the party’s offer to use the Pheu Thai logo and continue running as Pheu Thai members. Others have switched to other parties. Several, however, appear to be planning to run with non-partisan groups supporting Chadchart. These non-partisan groups are not formal party organizations, so members would technically run as independents, with the understanding that they are a part of these looser confederations of councilors.
Chadchart, for his part, has said that he is not currently supporting any councilor candidates and will announce his support for certain groups in due course. (He did post a call for people to join his “Work Work Work” network, which seems likely to be the name of a future group of candidates to support him). In the vacuum, there is a proliferation of groups that are using Chadchart’s green branding and announcing that they intend to support Chadchart as governor. These include a group called “Khon Tum Ngarn” (working people), “Sor Kor Phan Mai” (new breed councilors), and Better Bangkok. Some of these groups appear to be more closely connected with the governor’s team than others.
Of particular interest is Better Bangkok. It was started by former Pheu Thai councilor Surachit “Dr. John” Phongsinghvithya. “Better Bangkok” was the slogan used by Chadchart during his last campaign, and the group’s candidates have been posting graphics showing themselves with the governor. They have also been using a similar CI style to what Chadchart has been using (see right picture below). However, Chadchart released a statement saying that he had no connection to the Better Bangkok group, prompting Dr. John to clarify that while he asked the governor for permission to use a similar branding system, his group was not officially affiliated with Chadchart but will simply seek to support him.
And amidst the chaos, we have at least one group that has already folded. A number of Bangkok Councillor candidates initially appeared ready to contest under the banner of a group called "Bangkok First", but the leader of the group, a ex-Pheu Thai councillor, has already switched his allegiance to the Democrats, bringing at least one ex-People’s Party councillor with him.
Quasi-independence over party labels
The decision by so many candidates to disavow partisan affiliations in favor of less formal groups reverses the triumph of party labels in recent BMC elections. In 2022, only three of the BMC seats had been won by independents affiliated with former governor Asawin Kwanmuang’s Rak Krung Thep group; in 2010 only one independent had won. This year, with Pheu Thai’s withdrawal, we may see a large number of BMC candidates from these looser groupings win. This is actually a reversal of the trend in the provinces towards increasing party prominence. But interestingly, these “independents” are not truly independent, belonging as they do to these looser groups that are attempting to align themselves with prominent candidates like Chadchart. Running with the popular governor may now seem like a far more attractive proposition than remaining with a weakened Pheu Thai
One question worth pondering is: does the People’s Party complete sweep hold any clues for how Bangkok will vote in the BMC elections? Here, past may not be prologue. In 2022, Move Forward won only 14 out of 50 districts before (almost) sweeping the capital in the 2023 election. Long-serving councillors with a strong local record have often been more impervious to the national sentiment than MPs. I would expect all the major parties and groups fielding incumbents to win a number of seats, preventing a PP landslide.
In 2022, the Democrat candidate for governor, Suchatvee Suwansawat, sometimes made the argument that a governor cannot go it alone. His party was also fielding candidates for the Bangkok Metropolitan Council, and voters should consider choosing a governor and a councilor from the same party so that they would be able to work together effectively. Chadchart’s response was that previous independent governors had successfully run Bangkok without their own team in the BMC. If Chadchart does end up endorsing his own team of independents, it likely points to some truth to what Suchatvee said; the governor was likely frustrated without close allies on the BMC. Ironically, then, an independent governor may now want a less independent team of independents to help further his agenda.
It makes sense for Chadchart to endorse the councilors he found were good from the last term.
Which is why I'd be deeply disappointed if he actually endorsed Dr. John and his posse.
Dr. John is a serial liar, spent the latter half of the term in a selfish public drama with other Pheu Thai councilors because apparently there was a secret power sharing scheme where Dr. John would step down at some point. Even Thaksin was involved.
Is this really the kind of guy Chadchart sees as an effective or good councilor? He could pick from among his network and find much better people.