Bhumjaithai Coalition Formation Update

Kla Tham or no Kla Tham, that is the question

Image Credits: Royal Thai Government

Some miscellaneous updates:

• I wrote an article for Asialink Insights on why Bhumjaithai won.

• I also want to give a shoutout to Napon Jatusripitak’s election data hub, which is now by far the best way for you to browse through various ways to visualize the election results. Check it out here!

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We are now nearing two weeks after the general election, and there is still an interesting and unexpected lack of clarity about the makeup of the next Bhumjaithai-led coalition government.

A few more small parties have officially joined the Bhumjaithai coalition, after the addition of Pheu Thai last week, and the government can now count on 296 MPs. Logically speaking Bhumjaithai should probably just stop there; a majority of close to 50 is sufficient to ensure that the government is stable and ensures that the coalition is not so big that allocation of cabinet posts becomes too difficult. The only concern would be that Pheu Thai, with its 74 MPs, could become a veto player inside the government, as it could alone topple the coalition if it chooses to leave.

That brings us to the question of whether Kla Tham will join the government. I wrote about this topic last week, and we still have no clarity on that front. Take a look at these mixed signals.

Pai Lik, the Kla Tham secretary-general, said that the party has absolutely no conditions for joining the government. This could theoretically mean that it would be willing to concede the Ministry of Agriculture, which earlier media reports suggested was a ministry that Bhumjaithai was keen to take back. Pai also said that Kla Tham PM candidate Thammanat Promphao is not requiring that he himself take a cabinet post.

Most revealing has been comments from Thammanat himself. At a press conference today, Thammanat hit back at rumors that constitutional ethics requirements has made Bhumjaithai reluctant to include Kla Tham in its cabinet lineup, saying: “Whoever appointed me as a minister, if you think that I am in the wrong, then you will also be in the wrong.” When asked about the small parties that have been supporting Bhumjaithai, he retorted: “Have you ever heard of illusions?” And to top it all off, Thammanat noted: “Kla Tham is not scared of being squeezed by anybody. But if you squeeze me, beware of being hit back. In my life I’ve never picked a fight with anyone first, but if they do with me they will have nightmares.”

Thammanat also earlier suggested that the media focus more on the issue of ballot barcodes than on coalition formation. The use of barcodes on election ballots this year have become an increasingly controversial topic of discussion. The gist is this: some argue that these barcodes can be used to track who each person voted for, which would violate the constitutional principle of a secret ballot and thus potentially nullify the election. (The legal expert Wissanu Kruea-ngarm is among those who think that this could be an issue). That Thammanat would bring this up right now, when there is a lot of uncertainty about whether Kla Tham will be in government, is an interesting move.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has provided little comment on this matter. He was seen speaking to Kla Tham leader Narumon Pinyosinwat, but reports suggested that Anutin and Thammanat have not yet met since the election. The past week’s cabinet meeting was reported to have been a tense affair.

Overall, it is clear that not all is well with the Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham relationship, and earlier pre-election speculation that the two have formed an unbreakable alliance was premature. If Bhumjaithai truly were set on having Kla Tham in the coalition, it would be a simple matter to invite them to a press conference the way they did with Pheu Thai last week. The fact that this hasn’t happened yet, allowing all these rumors to fester and increasing the amount of bad blood between the two parties, suggests that there really is a world in which the two parties are headed for divorce. Even if they remain together, the tense relationship must certainly have some impact on their ability to cooperate in government.

There were also reports that Bhumjaithai will be administering the ministries that oversee the economy and security, while Pheu Thai will mostly be administering ministries related to society, although Pheu Thai secretary-general Prasert Jantararuangtong said that this has not yet been finalized. It will likely be weeks before we have a better idea of the final shape of the next government.