Go Green or No Green?
Analyzing whether Bhumjaithai will exclude Kla Tham
It’s not easy to keep up with the pace of Thai politics recently! Here is a short post with the latest update on coalition negotiations.
Less than 24 hours ago, I sent out a newsletter on Bhumjaithai inviting Pheu Thai to join its coalition government. This, I thought, was the beginning of what I’m calling an “RGB coalition",” where Bhumjaithai forms a coalition that includes both Pheu Thai, Kla Tham and other minor parties, going for a highly stable 338+ seat majority.
Almost immediately after sending out that post, however, I started to have second thoughts about whether or not we are indeed headed down the RGB path. I added this edit (which email subscribers unfortunately probably did not see): “Having thought about it further, the inclusion of the minor parties could be a major sign that Bhumjaithai may indeed be thinking about a coalition without Kla Tham. Why invite the minor parties if Pheu Thai and Kla Tham alone would already get Bhumjaithai way above the majority line?”
The math is telling. Cabinet quotas will already be at a premium in a government that includes Bhumjaithai (193 seats), Pheu Thai (74 seats), and Kla Tham (58 seats). Adding in a party such as Palang Pracharath (5 seats) which wouldn’t, in an ordinary quota calculation, receive a cabinet seat but probably wouldn’t be satisfied without one wouldn’t make sense, in that case.
Later in the evening, the media began reporting on another interesting clue. Thai Rath, for example, reported that Bhumjaithai sources were indicating the current coalition will include Pheu Thai, Kla Tham, and 35 MPs from smaller parties (including Prachachart, United Thai Nation, and Thai Pakdee). However, the reports repeated rumors that there are tensions between the two parties over how some dark blue strongholds were targeted by the green camp. Bhumjaithai reportedly also wants the Ministry of Agriculture to be supervised by Supajee Suthampun, who will be appointed as deputy prime minister, and thus this ministry would have to be moved into the Bhumjaithai quota. If Kla Tham does not let go of this ministry, the report says, they may no longer be invited to join the government.
If the reports are true, this could be a very difficult ultimatum for Kla Tham to swallow. Since 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture has been run by Thammanat, Narumon Pinyosinwat, Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn, then Thammanat again in succession — all currently in Kla Tham. The party campaigned heavily on agricultural policies, including a flagship proposal to convert land documents into agricultural title deeds. Without control of this ministry, Kla Tham will find it hard to follow through on its pledge to “do more than they talk” on core policy pledges.
Thus the probability that we end up with a “green exclusion pact” — a broad coalition of Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai, and the Democrats1 — or a “purple coalition” composed mainly of just Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai does seem to be increasing. Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva pointed out yesterday in an interview that a Bhumjaithai-Pheu Thai coalition topped up with a sufficient number of seats would have a majority similar in size to a Bhumjaithai-Pheu Thai coalition that includes the Democrats.
We should have a firmer picture of Kla Tham’s status in the coalition in the next week. There is unlikely to be any movement today; when reporters asked whether Kla Tham will receive an invite today, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said merely that today is Valentine’s Day. Even if Kla Tham does eventually join, however, the RGB coalition would clearly be off to a bumpy start.
I call it an exclusion pact because the Democrats would make inviting Kla Tham in at a later date difficult, because they have pledged not to be in a government with Kla Tham. This wouldn’t be a limitation inherent to just a “purple coalition”.