Democrat (22), United Thai Nation (20), Chart Thai Pattana (10), Prachachart (9), Chart Pattana (3), Thai Liberal (1)
Most of these parties were previously aligned with Bhumjaithai and staunchly against Pheu Thai in the past. With the "grand deal" between Thaksin and the establishment now out the window, wouldn't these MPs abandon Pheu Thai and try to get in on the Anutin-led govt? If so that would bring the new coalition to around 215 MPs not including PP's support.
If that happened, considering how Pheu Thai's popularity has been decimated, I wonder if Anutin could convince roughly 35 Pheu Thai MPs (or maybe even some PP MPs) to become cobras joining Bhumjaithai (or Kla Tham etc.), giving the coalition an outright majority that wouldn't require PP's support. Or would that be impossible without Pheu Thai leaders allowing it?
Got to assume Anutin will do whatever he can to remain PM after 4 months, and I reckon some Pheu Thai MPs could make the jump to Bhumjaithai without too much fuss from their constituents.
You can expect Anutin to act in his best interests.
But it doesn't mean that it is in his best interests to break the deal and stay longer than 4 months.
He can be a hero, the one who brought Thailand out of crisis, stabilized the economy, and emerge as a trustworthy and honorable conservative candidate. Also, BJT currently has 70 seats. They will only gain more seats after the election.
There is no reason for him to break the deal and completely to destroy his own political future.
He’s not everyone’s cup of tea but it’s worth noting the remarkable political success of going from 13% of the vote a couple of years ago to being elected PM and the vanquisher of the Shinawatras. Who’d be surprised if his little local government difficulty in the Senate quietly fades away too and that he’s still ruling the roost in Government House in 4 months time.
Since the 2023 election, there has been hardly any regularity in Thai politics, and this is going to continue throughout next year. So, the time of an entire term of the House will have been occupied by political struggles rather than filled with routine governmental procedures. And there is no guarantee that 2027 will see a more settled form of governmental regime.
Curious about these MPs...
Democrat (22), United Thai Nation (20), Chart Thai Pattana (10), Prachachart (9), Chart Pattana (3), Thai Liberal (1)
Most of these parties were previously aligned with Bhumjaithai and staunchly against Pheu Thai in the past. With the "grand deal" between Thaksin and the establishment now out the window, wouldn't these MPs abandon Pheu Thai and try to get in on the Anutin-led govt? If so that would bring the new coalition to around 215 MPs not including PP's support.
If that happened, considering how Pheu Thai's popularity has been decimated, I wonder if Anutin could convince roughly 35 Pheu Thai MPs (or maybe even some PP MPs) to become cobras joining Bhumjaithai (or Kla Tham etc.), giving the coalition an outright majority that wouldn't require PP's support. Or would that be impossible without Pheu Thai leaders allowing it?
Got to assume Anutin will do whatever he can to remain PM after 4 months, and I reckon some Pheu Thai MPs could make the jump to Bhumjaithai without too much fuss from their constituents.
You can expect Anutin to act in his best interests.
But it doesn't mean that it is in his best interests to break the deal and stay longer than 4 months.
He can be a hero, the one who brought Thailand out of crisis, stabilized the economy, and emerge as a trustworthy and honorable conservative candidate. Also, BJT currently has 70 seats. They will only gain more seats after the election.
There is no reason for him to break the deal and completely to destroy his own political future.
He’s not everyone’s cup of tea but it’s worth noting the remarkable political success of going from 13% of the vote a couple of years ago to being elected PM and the vanquisher of the Shinawatras. Who’d be surprised if his little local government difficulty in the Senate quietly fades away too and that he’s still ruling the roost in Government House in 4 months time.
Since the 2023 election, there has been hardly any regularity in Thai politics, and this is going to continue throughout next year. So, the time of an entire term of the House will have been occupied by political struggles rather than filled with routine governmental procedures. And there is no guarantee that 2027 will see a more settled form of governmental regime.
> It is note worthing...
Thanks for catching that!