Out of Cards

Vote for PM scheduled for September 5th

Catching you up: Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed as prime minister last week, and Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, who had previously left the Pheu Thai government, cobbled together an alternative coalition on the same day. The People’s Party and Bhumjaithai finalized a confidence and supply agreement which would see Anutin elected as prime minister, but Pheu Thai responded by requesting a dissolution of parliament.

“Yesterday he was a minister, today he wants to be Prime Minister.” —
Bhumjaithai 2023 general election campaign anthem

PM vote scheduled

In the evening of September 3rd, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Wan Muhammad Noor Matha, scheduled the vote to select Thailand’s 32nd prime minister for Friday, September 5th.

Yesterday, we were still discussing whether or not Pheu Thai’s Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai could pre-empt Anutin’s nomination with a dissolution of parliament. Events have continued to move along in Thai politics at breakneck speed, however. By the later afternoon, various media agencies were already saying that the request for a dissolution of parliament had not been successful because it had been returned by the Office of the Privy Council.

Thai PBS World reports:

Reports circulating on Wednesday afternoon said the Privy Council, in its role as the body responsible for reviewing documents and providing advisory opinions before royal consideration and signature, had returned the draft decree to the Secretariat of the Cabinet.

The Council reportedly concluded that the submission was not in line with proper procedures for seeking royal approval, citing a legal dispute over whether a caretaker government has the authority to propose such a decree.

It also referenced the opinion of the Secretary General of the Council of State, who maintained that a caretaker administration cannot submit a draft royal decree to dissolve the House.

Phumtham refused to comment on these reports. Anutin also did not comment, but in a moment of supreme relaxation joked with reporters about ordering orange cake to his wife’s coffee shop. (It’s notable how calm and relaxed Anutin has been throughout this entire process).

For once, it looks like Pheu Thai may finally be out of cards. Over two decades since Thaksin Shinawatra first became prime minister, Pheu Thai for the first time increasingly looks like a spent force: staring at an electoral abyss, having sacrificed its popular capital, and with no obvious pathway to restore its status.

Is Anutin inevitable?

One wonders whether Pheu Thai might try one more Hail Mary, but it looks like the party has given up on retaining power for now. The government chief whip confirmed that Pheu Thai would nominate former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri as their candidate for prime minister at the vote. That is likely to be a doomed last stand, as the incumbent coalition no longer holds a majority in the House of Representatives. We can do a headcount here:

• Pheu Thai Coalition: Pheu Thai (132), Democrat (22), United Thai Nation (20), Chart Thai Pattana (10), Prachachart (9), Chart Pattana (3), Thai Liberal (1). Total: 197.

• Bhumjaithai Coalition: Bhumjaithai (69), Kla Tham (25), Palang Pracharath (20), renegade United Thai Nation faction (16), renegade Pheu Thai faction (8), renegade Democrat faction (3), renegade Thai Sang Thai faction (3). Confidence and supply agreement with the People’s Party (143). Verbal agreement to support from other micro-parties (5). Total: 292.

There are only a couple of ways now in which I can see Anutin failing to become prime minister at the last second.

The first one is the People’s Party pulling out of the confidence and supply agreement. We have been seeing some calls from influential progressives calling for the party to void the agreement. The PP and Bhumjaithai are also already experiencing some friction, with Bhumjaithai’s legal team filing a police report to stop Phumtham’s dissolution of parliament yesterday and the PP insisting that a dissolution was legal. Nattaphong Rueangpanyawut, the PP leader, called on parties filing criminal complaints to withdraw them. But despite these tensions, I would be very surprised if the party decided to void this agreement with the ink still barely dry. The PP has invested a significant amount of political capital into this agreement and has argued that their decision was made after comprehensively listening to party members. It would reflect badly on the party to perform an instant u-turn.

It is worth noting that Nattaphong has asked for greater clarity from Phumtham on whether the dissolution of parliament is still proceeding, as he argues a vote for prime minister should be delayed if uncertainty remains on that front. Given Phumtham’s reluctance yesterday to discuss this matter and Pheu Thai’s decision to announce a candidate for election tomorrow, I would still expect that a vote goes ahead. Nattaphong also said that Pheu Thai’s actions are contradictory — “on one hand with reports saying they are ready to propose a candidate for prime minister, and on the other hand with reports saying they are still seeking a dissolution of parliament.”

The second way in which a Pheu Thai last stand succeeds would be if Pheu Thai pulled enough “cobras” from the Bhumjaithai coalition. This could be in the form of both Bhumjaithai’s official coalition members and also individual disaffected PP MPs who disagree with the party decision. But I also find this unlikely. Bhumjaithai’s coalition, with PP support, is now over 40 MPs above the majority line. Can Pheu Thai find that many MPs to switch sides and prevent Anutin’s election, when all the momentum is with the Bhumjaithai camp? It would be difficult indeed. Pheu Thai could decide to switch their candidate for prime minister and then cobble together a new alternative coalition within a day (see scenarios 3 and 4 here). At this point, though, it is probably too late to make such a move. It would require dealmaking for the ages to execute such a plan in 24 hours.

Barring a last minute shock — and I readily acknowledge we’ve had a lot of shocks over the past few months in Thai politics — Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul increasingly looks inevitable.