Anutin is Almost Prime Minister. Can Pheu Thai Stop Him?

We're entering uncharted waters for Thai politics

Left: Bhumjaithai’s poster promoting Anutin Charnvirakul. Right: The confidence and supply agreement between the People’s Party and Bhumjaithai.

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Catching you up: Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed as prime minister last week, and Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, who had previously left the Pheu Thai government, cobbled together an alternative coalition on the same day. After a day of contradictory media reports on what would happen next, the People’s Party and Bhumjaithai have now finalized a confidence and supply agreement.

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Earlier this year, ex-Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat published new book called The Almost Prime Minister. The title comes from the fact that his bid for power was blocked by a bloc of conservative parties, which was followed by Pheu Thai’s ejection of Move Forward from the government coalition.

Two years later, we now have the MFP-successor party, the People’s Party, partnering with the conservative Bhumjaithai party at Pheu Thai’s expense. Anutin is almost prime minister. But can Pheu Thai block him? Will we have a second “almost prime minister” in three years?

The Bhumjaithai - People’s Party partnership takes shape

People’s Party leader Nattaphong Rueangpanyawut announced today that the party had decided to back Anutin Charnvirakul to become Thailand’s 32nd prime minister — confirming widespread media reports from yesterday. Both Nattaphong and Anutin signed a five-point agreement:

1. The new prime minister will dissolve parliament within four months of their policy declaration to parliament

2. If the Constitutional Court rules that drafting a new constitution requires a referendum first, the new government will organize such a referendum before the next general election

3. If the Constitutional Court rules that no such referendum is necessary, the two parties will begin amending the constitution and setting up an elected constitution drafting assembly before the next general election

4. Bhumjaithai will not take any action that will lead towards building a majority government. (According to Anutin, his coalition has 146 MPs — significantly below the majority line in a 500-member parliament and his government is thus completely dependent on the PP’s 143 MPs for support).

5. The People’s Party will remain in opposition and will not take any positions in the new cabinet.

This is the first official confidence and supply agreement in Thai history, and I wrote in a previous piece, a bit of a political Frankenstein: a Bhumjaithai dark blue prime minister, with a kaleidoscope government of parties and renegade factions, backed by the PP’s orange guarantors in a confidence and supply agreement, ostensibly on a temporary reformist mission.

The obvious question to ask is how high the chance of betrayal is. Bhumjaithai had previously expressed little interest in constitutional amendment, but in a poster released by the party, Anutin’s political thought now includes “amending the constitution so that it is more democratic.” At Anutin’s press conference, he expressed a total commitment to this agreement with the People’s Party, pointing to his party’s slogan: phood laew thum (“we do what we say”)¹.

We will have more time over the days ahead to analyze the dynamics of this new Bhumjaithai coalition and the credibility of its new commitments. The main question right now is: is this happening? Will Anutin truly get to become the 32nd prime minister?

Pheu Thai tries to dissolve parliament

Immediately after the PP announced their support for Anutin, Pheu Thai told the media that it had submitted a petition to His Majesty the King requesting a dissolution of parliament. Despite initial denials, Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai admitted that he had submitted the petition yesterday.

The PP has effectively forced Pheu Thai’s hand, as it seems to have calculated that overseeing the election with the powers of an incumbent government will at least provide the party some advantage. But this was a risky move. I’ve written about this before and it bears repeating: the fact that Phumtham acted to dissolve parliament is highly controversial, and since it has now happened, it’s worth digging deeper into what the legal experts argue.

On this issue, the constitution itself is silent. Section 103 of the 2017 Constitution states only that: “The King has the Royal Prerogative to dissolve the House of Representatives for a new general election of Members of the House of Representatives. The dissolution of the House of Representatives shall be made in the form of a Royal Decree and shall be made only once under the same event.”

The question, therefore, is whether it is legal for an acting government operating without full powers to request a dissolution of parliament. Dr. Bowornsak Uwanno’s, a previous constitution drafter and expert on Thai constitutional law, argued that an acting government can only manage current states of affairs and cannot act on policy matters; based on governing traditions and traditional constitutional principles, an acting government cannot submit such a request. But this is a contested opinion, as other legal experts say that there’s nothing preventing the government from submitting such a request.

Perhaps the arcane legal details matter less than the mere fact that there is ambiguity about whether or not Phumtham can dissolve parliament, because it opens up the case to legal challenge. The head of Bhumjaithai’s legal team challenged Phumtham’s actions with the police. Democracy MP has filed a police report alleging that Phumtham committed lese-majeste. An activist, Srisuwan Janya, is asking for a ruling that Phumtham violated ethical standards by seeking a dissolution of parliament that was outside his authority. But there are also questions about whether anyone actually has legal standing to seek an opinion from, say, the Constitutional Court. No one knows whether anything will come out of these legal challenges.

Pheu Thai has now tried a Hail Mary in the form of trying to overturn the Paetongtarn ruling. I doubt that much will come out of that, and it appears to be more of an attempt to further muddy the waters and perhaps delay the prime minister vote.

Uncharted waters for Thai politics

So these are uncharted waters. We’re in constitutional crisis territory here, because we truly do not know what will happen next — no acting government has ever tried to dissolve parliament.

For now, Bhumjaithai is proceeding full speed towards setting up a new government, with the party’s MPs formally requesting that House Speaker Wan Muhammad Noor Matha schedule a date to elect the new prime minister. But will the Speaker try to delay this until there is more clarity on whether or not parliament will be dissolved? And if Anutin is elected as prime minister before a dissolution is granted, could he perhaps retract Phumtham’s request?

I wish I could write some deeper analysis about the collapse of the grand compromise that brought Pheu Thai to power, what the new PP-Bhumjaithai confidence and supply agreement means, how stable a Bhumjaithai government will be, and the future of the triangular dynamics of Thai politics. Unfortunately, we’re still in a position where things are changing day by day. No one knows what will happen next.

1. Bhumjaithai began using this slogan after successfully pushing through its pledge to legalize marijuana for legal purposes after the 2019 general election.