Catching you up: When Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed as prime minister, I outlined four different scenarios for what might happen next. One of them was that Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul becomes prime minister, with support from the People’s Party. On that same day, Anutin announced the formation of a new alternative coalition that would seek a confidence and supply agreement with the PP. Although Pheu Thai quickly responded with overtures to the PP, I noted here that there were various reasons for why Pheu Thai is a less attractive choice compared to Bhumjaithai. All of this already made for quite a strange turn of events: that Bhumjaithai might seem like a more natural partner for the PP than its longtime ex-ally Pheu Thai.
Things have only gotten weirder since then. Let’s do a roundup of some of today’s headlines:
Chaikasem out in the cold
Pheu Thai’s final prime minister candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri told the press that he had not even been contacted by Pheu Thai’s leading figures and was not invited to attend the negotiations with the PP. That understandably raised eyebrows. One of the most likely candidates for the premiership, instead of being at the center of action, admitted to being kept out of the loop. The fact that Chaikasem chose to say this publicly is in itself interesting: was he angry at Pheu Thai for not treating him with sufficient respect?
In a course correction, Chaikasem was invited to a meeting at the Pheu Thai Party (which was also attended by Thaksin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra). But Pheu Thai also said they did not formally nominate him for the premiership, ostensibly because he is now the only candidate they have.
Knight in shining armor
Very interestingly, Chaikasem also said that he might not be needed as prime minister because a “knight on a white horse” may swoop in and save the day. But later in the day when he was asked about this comment, he pleaded ignorance and asked who made the remarks — despite the fact that he said it on live TV just a few hours earlier.
My best guess is that the only person who would best fit that description would be former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is already being floated in the media as a “neutral” prime minister who can take the country towards fresh elections.
No decision from the orange camp
The People’s Party has still not made a formal decision, after two days of meetings, on whether they will offer a confidence and supply agreement to Bhumjaithai or Pheu Thai. Parit Wacharasindhu, the party spokesperson, said that they distrust both. Yet we had an interesting moment today when various news agencies began reporting that the PP had come to a decision to back Bhumjaithai. The PP then denied that they had come to agreement and explained that the party’s executive committee will make a final decision tomorrow.
Was it truly just a misunderstanding from an errant reporter? I find that a little difficult to believe. We do know that the PP was “highly irritated” by Chaikasem’s comments about a knight in shining armor. A closely aligned figure, Pannika Wanich, went as far as to accuse Pheu Thai of trying to delay the game so that they could “invite the knight back as prime minister.” So there still appears to be no momentum towards backing Pheu Thai on this front. And yet the PP seems reluctant to come to a decision. Why?
Nuclear options
Perhaps one possible reason could be that they are still in a game of chicken with Pheu Thai. Today Pheu Thai’s secretary-general made some ambiguous comments about having “initiated” the process of dissolving parliament but then walked them back. Acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai said that this was not yet under consideration, but if “they join hands” (meaning the PP and Bhumjaithai), then they’ll have to revisit it. In short, it does sound like calling for snap elections is something being mulled over.
In short, we seem to be having a game of chicken. If the PP announces an agreement with Bhumjaithai, it may immediately come to moot because Pheu Thai could then dissolve parliament. But it is a curious threat. This isn’t something that the PP would be miffed about — they’re ready for an election. Pheu Thai, on the other hand, has much to lose. Aside from overseeing the election as an incumbent (which didn’t do much good for Prayut in 2023), with its popularity in tatters Pheu Thai looks like the party that should fear an election the most. In addition, the lack of clarity on whether it is legal for an acting government to dissolve parliament poses another problem for Pheu Thai. If there is a legal challenge that annuls any Phumtham petition for a dissolution, we would be entering uncharted waters. So why make this threat? Is it to try to scare off Bhumjaithai’s coalition partners who may not be ready for an election? To keep Pheu Thai’s current coalition members on board? We don’t know for sure.
At this point, I’m wondering if Pheu Thai is playing for time. The PP doesn’t necessarily want to damage their public brand — remember this is the same group that ejected the minor Chart Pattana Kla party from their coalition — by casting a vote for Anutin as prime minister. As such, they would probably be very willing to delay a final decision if Pheu Thai would just go ahead and dissolve parliament. But as Napon Jatusripitak speculated, what if the real play now is to try to re-cobble a coalition government with a non-Pheu Thai candidate — a knight in shining armor, so to speak — as prime minister? Was what Chaikasem said more than just a slip of the tongue?
In my August 29 piece, I outlined a couple different scenarios for who could form the next government. Remarkably, after days of political maneuvering, many of them remain possible. Expect more twists and turns ahead.
But how could PT propose an outsider, Prayud, when there are still candidates from the parties to choose from?
In fact, if PT were seen to be asking Prayud to stand, would that not push PP towards choosing Anuthin as PM, assuming they see Anuthin preferable to Prayud?