Paetongtarn's Coalition Stabilizes for Now
Against the odds, her premiership survives — at least in the short term
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After a few days where the rumor mill went into overdrive on whether the United Thai Nation Party will pull out of the coalition, the Pheu Thai-led coalition appears to have stabilized for now. Today, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra held a meeting with leaders from all the major coalition partners. They include: Pirapan Salirathavibhaga (United Thai Nation), Narumon Pinyosinwat (Kla Tham), Chalermchai Sri-orn (Democrat), Varawut Silpa-archa (Chart Thai Pattana), Tawee Sodsong (Prachachart), and Suwat Liptapallop (Chart Pattana). It is impressive (in perhaps a morbid way) that Paetongtarn has managed to survive the initial maelstrom of fury that was sparked by her leaked phone call with Hun Sen and the departure of Bhumjaithai from the coalition. The meeting was a sign of unity and a demonstration that the government remains intact.
How did the government survive?
In no small part, Paetongtarn’s survival came down to the United Thai Nation Party’s decision to remain in the coalition.
For anyone watching the UTN, the past week has been deeply confusing: first there were reports that the UTN decided to push for a change in prime minister, and various senior party figures confirmed this. There was even a report from Isra News Agency that Paetongtarn told UTN leader Pirapan that she would resign after the FY 2026 budget has passed, which Pheu Thai promptly denied. But then the UTN spokesperson stated that only Pirapan could tell the press what the party resolution was, and that people “should not yet believe” what other figures were saying.1 There are two problems with this: 1) the figures who said the UTN wanted Paetongtarn gone were very senior figures in the party who ostensibly should know what the party had decided, and 2) Pirapan has said virtually nothing to the press on this topic!
There are two potential explanations here. The first is that the party is backtracking on its initial position that the prime minister must resign, thus clearing the way for the UTN to remain in the coalition. The second is that the party intentionally made sure that Pirapan never stated his intentions to the press, which gave the party wiggle room as the terms of its continued support was negotiated with Pheu Thai. Regardless of how it happened, this will come at great electoral expense to the UTN. Given the UTN’s conservative base which by and large virulently detests Thaksin Shinawatra, by remaining in the coalition the party seems to have written off being a credible contestant at the next election and ceding the conservative electoral market entirely to Bhumjaithai.
The government’s majority
Whatever the internal politics inside the party that led the UTN down this path, it has become clear that with all 36 UTN MPs remaining, Paetongtarn has the numbers to command a clear lower house majority. We can work through some of the parliamentary arithmetic to figure out how many MPs Paetongtarn really has:
Pheu Thai: 142 seats
United Thai Nation: 36 seats
Kla Tham: 26 seats
Democrat: Officially 25 seats. However, the three-party list MPs in former prime minister Chuan Leekpai’s faction oppose remaining in the coalition, along with Songkla MP Sanphet Bunyamanee and so are not reliable votes for the government. We’ll put this at 21 seats.
Chart Thai Pattana: 10 seats
Prachachart: 9 seats
Chart Pattana: 3 seats
Other micro-parties: 4 seats
Therefore, the government has around 251 reliable votes in parliament. That is essentially almost the bare minimum for a majority in the House of Representatives (although there is some buffer room here because there are five vacant seats). For a measure of security, the government will be counting on some renegade MPs from Thai Sang Thai (all six TST MPs voted for Paetongtarn to become prime minister), and at least one MP from the People’s Party that has unofficially defected to Kla Tham. So we are currently looking at a government that has around ~260 votes in parliament.2
Is 260 MPs a lot? It’s still quite a slim majority, and while it could go up if more defectors come, it could also go down; at least three UTN MPs in Chumphon “Lookmee” Julsai’s Chumphon provincial faction demonstrated against the prime minister, and whether they will continue voting with the government remains to be seen. But roughly 260 MPs is also enough for Paetongtarn to survive for now.
What we’re watching next
It seems like Pheu Thai has managed to stabilize both the prime minister’s position and the government for the time being. This assumes no more u-turns from United Thai Nation or any of the other coalition partners, and since I still can’t quite wrap my head around what the UTN has been doing internally over the past week that’s a big assumption. That is also assuming that “Uncle” Hun Sen does not release anything more incriminating that could once again rock the government, which as I wrote about here may not be a good bet. What is certain to come next is a cabinet reshuffle, as Bhumjaithai’s departure left eight ministerial positions up for grabs. Speculation has been mounting on how they will be re-allocated among the remaining coalition parties. I would expect that we get clarity on this reshuffle soon, possibly within the next week.
In the medium term, I still believe that Paetongtarn’s position is shaky. I plan to put out a fuller analysis soon of the new challenges the prime minister will now have to confront: an avalanche of legal, growing demonstrations, and governing challenges in the face of a hostile dark blue Senate. In particular, if the Constitutional Court accepts the ethics petition on Paetongtarn’s conduct, she could be temporarily suspended as prime minister. But there was no guarantee that she would have even made it this far. In the short term, Paetongtarn has — against the odds — survived.
A report said that Pirapan’s own faction of 18 MPs are themselves divided on whether to leave the coalition, while the 18 MPs attached to Suchart Chomklin of course favor remaining. Secretary-general Akanat Promphan issued a denial.
The Kla Tham party secretary-general Pai Lik has said that he believes the government might have as many as 280 loyal MPs, but unless we see a lot more defectors from parties such as the People’s Party and Palang Pracharath, that seems like an exaggeration for now.
Do you think recent developments may lead to liberal and conservative voters coalescing around two major parties; the PP for the left and Bhumjaithai on the right, such as was the case in the UK until recently.
It’s hard to see much of a future for the UTN or Palang Pracharath and what’s the point of the Democrats now they taken the Thaskin shilling. The PT record in government was very poor even before the phone call saga.
Or is that very farang way of looking at things and the strength of regional and family loyalties more or less guarantees a multi part system.