I wrote this post before the endless rain that has devastated many parts of Bangkok. I briefly wondered if this week should focus on the government’s response to the floods. At this point, I don’t have much more to add on the political implications other than the government’s disaster warning system has once again proven inadequate, with the warnings hitting peoples’ phones well into the start of the flooding, rendering them moot. The fact that the Thai Meteorological Department is stuck in a PR war with an amateur Facebook page on whose warnings were more accurate speaks for itself.
With the floods receding in most areas, hopefully we will see a quick rebound for the capital and rapid relief for the districts still inundated.
The Thai media first began reporting that Kla Tham “indicated their intention” to exit the opposition whip. Then, chief opposition whip Parit Wacharasindhu (from the People’s Party) announced that he had decided to expel Kla Tham after the party voted in support of Bhumjaithai’s budget. Kla Tham’s spokesman Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn said that the party “respects its removal from the opposition alliance but remains independent and is not committed to either political camp.”
Two things to note here. First, this sequence of events is a little confusing and begs the question of what actually happened first. My guess would be that, hearing indications that Kla Tham were planning to resign the opposition whip, the People’s Party took action first and expelled the party — but I don’t know for sure. Second, I struggle to think of a precedent for this. Plenty of parties have been expelled from government coalitions but I cannot recall the last time a party was asked to leave the official opposition bloc. Indeed, my guess would be that this has never happened. The fact that it is happening now should indicate how publicly Kla Tham is signaling itself to be a pseudo-opposition party waiting for the opportunity to join the Bhumjaithai government.1
It’s important to remind ourselves that Kla Tham’s exclusion from the Bhumjaithai-led coalition government was unexpected. Kla Tham had been an original member of the Frankenstein minority government that Bhumjaithai put together in the wake of the collapse of the Pheu Thai administration. The two party appeared to be such close allies that analysts have found suggestive evidence (see Joel Selway’s analysis here) that the two parties may have coordinated their election campaigns earlier this year. Whether or not that is true, Anutin and Thammanat clearly signaled before the election that they were intending to remain united in a coalition. But in a surprise, after winning the election, Bhumjaithai reportedly gave harsh terms to Kla Tham, including requiring the latter to cede the prized Ministry of Agriculture, and in the end Bhumjaithai chose not to invite Kla Tham after all. So in a sense, the addition of Kla Tham to the coalition would simply be a return to what had been the long-expected government makeup all along.
In another sign that Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham ties are becoming closer, Thammanat was seen wearing a Casio watch similar to one worn by Anutin. That particular watch is even engraved with Anutin’s name. Kla Tham secretary-general Pai Lik furthered the speculation by posting: “This is not a first-hand watch. Basically, it was taken from the wrist.”
But assuming Bhumjaithai truly is preparing to welcome Kla Tham into the government, why now? The government coalition remains stable, with 292 MPs in a lower house of 500. There are no reports of serious infighting within the coalition between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai, so presumably the former is not preparing to eject the latter from the government.
Indeed, I can think of plenty of reasons why Bhumjaithai should not do this. Too big a government would make cabinet quotas difficult to divide up; Pheu Thai is already signaling that it wants to retain the five ministries that it received from Bhumjaithai in their original coalition agreement, but Bhumjaithai would presumably not want to give Kla Tham only its own portion of ministries. Kla Tham brings with it plenty of baggage that would not improve the government’s image. And there are longstanding fears that allowing Kla Tham to join the government would allow the party to grow even stronger, fueling its local strength further and making it even more able to wield the power of patronage.
Perhaps Anutin wants to kick out some of the more outspoken minor coalition members (some smaller parties like the Economic Party and the United Thai Nation Party at times feel like a pseudo-opposition party, but in the reverse sense of Kla Tham). But swapping out five MPs for a party of 58 is overkill. Or it is a sign of strength that Bhumjaithai can afford to ignore public opinion and bring Kla Tham into the government. That would indicate, however, that the party is bringing something to the table that the public is not yet aware of.
For now, Kla Tham is in the role of what we could call an “independent” opposition party.2 It is a state that the party is unlikely to find itself in for long, however, with the way things are evolving.
It’s worth noting that plenty of opposition parties in the past have tried to build bridges to the ruling coalition without having to officially leave the opposition bloc.
My gut feel is that Bhumjaithai would suffer politically from embracing Kla Tham and giving the party cabinet positions. I have no evidential basis for that, I just suspect that Kla Tham's base is geographically restricted and those with a negative view of the party are likely to significantly outweigh those who have a positive view of it. It will be interesting to see how this pans out...