The Democrats had a solid 6 seats in Songkhla in 2023. Their vote share was basically equal to that of BJT, UTN, and PPRP combined. So, I assume the assumption is that those candidates who left the party will make the difference against the Democrats, supposing that their replacements are much weaker. Is this the case?
Yes, the conventional wisdom is that the ex-Dem incumbents will basically all win despite moving to new parties. At least that's what people in Songkhla seem to think! I really do wonder if we won't see at least a few upsets, however.
One more factor is: you cannot underestimate the power of habits in elections.
I have Yellow Shirt → PDRC relatives who were diehard Democrats. Then, Prayut came and they voted for him twice.
This means they haven't voted for Abhisit/Democrats for 2 elections now. Once you break a habit, it's hard to start again.
For all the articles talking about Abhisit nostalgia or whatever, I still think going back is not as easy as people think.
Oh and by the way, those relatives now are mocking Abhisit. “Democrats will get 5-10 seats, it’s stupid to vote for them.”
No one wants to vote for a loser. Prayut could win. Abhisit never could.
The Democrats had a solid 6 seats in Songkhla in 2023. Their vote share was basically equal to that of BJT, UTN, and PPRP combined. So, I assume the assumption is that those candidates who left the party will make the difference against the Democrats, supposing that their replacements are much weaker. Is this the case?
Yes, the conventional wisdom is that the ex-Dem incumbents will basically all win despite moving to new parties. At least that's what people in Songkhla seem to think! I really do wonder if we won't see at least a few upsets, however.
I wonder about this too. I seem to remember cases in which party loyalty offset the loss of incumbents to other parties that the voters did not like.