Two Civil Wars Inside the Cabinet

A fight over the Interior Ministry, and a renegade faction declares war on the United Thai Nation Party's leaders

This post is a deep dive into some dynamics of the current Thai cabinet. If you’d like a refresher on the state of Thai politics, see this observer’s guide.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra announced for the first time that she is considering a cabinet reshuffle, after months-long rumors that one is imminent. Since then, however, hell seems to have broken loose with the cabinet. There appears to be not one but two civil wars raging within the government: one between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, and one between various factions of the United Thai Nation Party.

Thaksin makes a move on Bhumjaithai’s Interior Ministry

The first front of the cabinet civil war began with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra announcing on May 30th that Pheu Thai should seek to gain control of the Ministry of Interior, which is currently led by Deputy Prime Minister and Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul. Thaksin, upon being asked by reporters to analyze the political situation, said: “To bring your policies to the people, the main ministry [to realize this] is the Interior Ministry Today [the policies] have not reached the people because the Interior Ministry has not done its best. There are only two years left; it’s a requirement that the Interior Ministry needs to do its best.” Therefore, he said, Pheu Thai must take control of this ministry. These comments immediately ignited a political firestorm, with Paetongtarn attempting to brush them off by saying she had not yet discussed this issue with her father. Thaksin said that he did not want Bhumjaithai to leave the coalition, but in an ominous warning, just the day before Anutin had said that the coalition will not collapse if he remained in it.

Since then, reports emerged of various “coalition formulas” being negotiated between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai. One report said that Bhumjaithai proposed giving up its current ministerial positions in exchange for full control over Transport Ministry, the Public Health Ministry, and the Tourism and Sports Ministry. Another formula would be to add the Office of the National Water Resource to the supervision of the Bhumjaithai deputy prime minister, in addition to the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry, the Commerce Ministry, the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry, and the Digital Economy Ministry.

Neither formula will be easy for Pheu Thai to swallow; the Transport Ministry is traditionally considered a “Grade A ministry”¹, while the Agriculture and Natural Resources ministries are currently under the control of two key coalition partners that Pheu Thai could find difficult to satisfy otherwise (Kla Tham and the Democrat Party, respectively). But Anutin is also unlikely to budge. Recently, Anutin has insisted that Bhumjaithai does not believe that any change is needed within its quota of cabinet roles as all its ministers are performing effectively. He also asked people to remember that Bhumjaithai had joined the government at the invitation of Pheu Thai, not because they had begged to join, and that they had worked well together under the two Pheu Thai prime ministers.

At this point, I would be surprised if Bhumjaithai does end up letting go of the Interior Ministry. For one, the advantages to controlling this ministry is simply too large to give up; it holds sway over vast numbers of bureaucratic appointments and local government apparatuses that could prove very helpful for the party as it prepares for the next general election and looks to scuttle the legal challenges that it faces. Anutin has also proven ready to play hardball with Pheu Thai, even saying two weeks ago that he would not close the door to cooperating with the People’s Party in the future if they could find a way to align their policies. Pheu Thai could theoretically afford to let Bhumjaithai leave the coalition and still sustain a majority in the House of Representatives, but it would be such a wafer-thin majority (only a little over 250 seats out of 500) that the government would be at imminent risk of collapse at any time. Unless Pheu Thai is ready for the election, it will need the “Chocolate Mint Declaration”² to hold.

The United Thai Nation Party’s civil war

UTN leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and UTN secretary-general Akanat Promphan met to indicate unity and resolve. (Image credits)

An even more spectacular political civil war is raging within another political party: the United Thai Nation Party. (A refresher: the UTN was originally founded in an attempt to realize a third term for former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, and since Prayut’s retirement from politics joined the Pheu Thai coalition in exchange for the Energy and Industry ministries). There is a lot of context go through, but to lay it out quickly: rumors have long circulated that Deputy Prime Minister and UTN leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga has remained largely aloof from party politics and is thus unpopular with the party’s MPs, but things seem to have reached a boiling point. Pirapan is now facing multiple legal issues. In addition, news reports say that major “funding groups” have now abandoned the UTN.

The immediate trigger for the current party crisis is what reports say is an attempt by Suchart Chomklin, a deputy commerce minister and leader of a key faction within the party, to leave and join the New Opportunity Party.³ In a stunning move, Suchart has written a letter to Paetongtarn asking for the prime minister to remove the party’s ministers from their posts, owing to what he called a lack of achievements and unethical conduct.⁴ The letter was apparently co-signed by 21 MPs in UTN, but to make the situation more chaotic, however, some MPs have now denied that they ever signed this letter. Industry Minister and UTN secretary-general Akanat Promphan has now accused those with vested interests for sowing division within the party. (The UTN ministers have been working on legislation on energy reform and cracking down on illegal industrial practices, with Akanat alleging earlier this year that a 300 million baht bounty had been placed on his removal). For their part, the New Opportunity Party, which would likely be the beneficiary if Suchart is able to leave the UTN, has denied that any interest groups are backing the party.

Where this will end remains to be seen. According to current law, MPs cannot resign from a party without losing their status as MPs, and so they must be expelled from the party. One potential explanation for Suchart’s behavior is that he is looking to make it untenable for the UTN to have him remain inside the party and thus forcing them to expel him, similar to what Palang Pracharath did with Captain Thammanat Promphao’s faction last year. If it is true that Suchart has 21 MPs under his sway and they are all expelled, however, it would reduce the UTN to only 15 seats, which would significantly reduce its political influence and, more immediately, the ministerial quota to which it is entitled.

What is clear, however, is that the party is deeply struggling. Pirapan has often pledged to maintain Prayut’s “DNA.” Pirapan’s approach had borne some fruit, with the party also exhibitng some signs of momentum in recent months. But the level of disunity in the party may prove an insurmountable challenge without its spiritual leader Prayut. UTN party-list MP Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana recently said, “Prayut is no longer living in this home, and the home’s owner has changed…I am just someone living here who does not feel…that I can most effectively serve the people like I did before.” Akanat has indicated that UTN plans to keep on fighting, but it will not be an easy battle.

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1. Thai parlance for ministries with large budgets, high policy impact, and many opportunities for government procurement.

2. The Thai media’s nickname for the coalition agreement, forged over mint chocolate cocoa (Paetongtarn’s favorite drink) at the Pheu Thai party headquarters.

3. The party is new and is currently staffed largely by former bureaucrats.

4. Former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij jokingly referred to this as a “new political innovation” that he never thought he would see, which is probably correct: I’m not sure there’s ever been an instance where a party member asked the PM to remove his own party’s ministers (and Suchart himself is a UTN cabinet member).