As you often say, Ken, a month is a long time in Thai politics (very true!). But, if Anutin produces an effective ceasefire with Cambodia over the next few weeks,with terms which electors approve of, I might take a bet on Bhumjaithai achieving 180 seats. I have no analytical support for this, just a gut feeling.
Always difficult for me to make a seat forecast one month out of the election. I think 100 seats seems to be the floor for BJT this election. Harder to tell where the ceiling is but coming in first place is indeed a possibility.
It is interesting that Phuea Thai, with its main PM candidate, seems to try to cover both the technocratic angle and be attractive to potential PP voters who want to see younger faces but, nevertheless, have doubts about the "radical" orientation of the PP (this was indicated in a Matichon column). At the same time, policywise, it remains within its playbook, and candidatewise, it remains to rely on local electoral structures. So, it represents a rather complex electoral option.
Ken, just to say thank you for your insightful and informative contributions throughout the year.
May yourself and your family enjoy a thoroughly deserved New Year break.
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Thank you for your kind words, Jeff — happy new year!
As you often say, Ken, a month is a long time in Thai politics (very true!). But, if Anutin produces an effective ceasefire with Cambodia over the next few weeks,with terms which electors approve of, I might take a bet on Bhumjaithai achieving 180 seats. I have no analytical support for this, just a gut feeling.
Always difficult for me to make a seat forecast one month out of the election. I think 100 seats seems to be the floor for BJT this election. Harder to tell where the ceiling is but coming in first place is indeed a possibility.
The trouble is how far can Anuthin trust Hun Sen?
I would think Thailand would want peace for economic reasons and stability, but can the same be said for Hun Sen ?
Could violence erupt anytime if Hun Sen wants diversion from domestic problems?
Then there are the 'grey areas', possibly indicating collusion between BHP, its coalition partners and major criminal activities in 'Scambodia'.
If PP can convince the Thai public of possible links, I'm not how many conservatives or nationalists could stomach voting for BHP
It is interesting that Phuea Thai, with its main PM candidate, seems to try to cover both the technocratic angle and be attractive to potential PP voters who want to see younger faces but, nevertheless, have doubts about the "radical" orientation of the PP (this was indicated in a Matichon column). At the same time, policywise, it remains within its playbook, and candidatewise, it remains to rely on local electoral structures. So, it represents a rather complex electoral option.