Perhaps a more nuanced perspective needs to be applied to some of your analysis:
1. You claim that even though the People’s Party remains on top, they are underperforming against where they were in 2023. Given the large number of undecided voters, this is almost certainly true. But there are other factors to consider. You do not specify the denominator for 2023. Is the data you are referring to for ‘where the PP was in 2023’ an opinion poll some months out from the election or the actual election result? If you are comparing the results of the NIDA regional polling to the 2023 actual election result, it needs to be kept in mind that the NIDA polling does not include Bangkok, where the PP won all but one seat at the last election. Also, the large number of undecided voters are likely to make up their minds one way or the other by the time of the election, with a reasonable likelihood of many of them deciding to support the PP.
2. If you go back to the time when Thailand was about four months out from the 2023 election, Pita Limjaroenrat actually didn’t have a particularly high profile. He even attracted public criticism from one of the co-founders of the Future Forward Party for his low profile, with the accompanying prediction of Move Forward losing votes at the forthcoming election. As things turned out, Khun Pita ran a brilliant election campaign, outperforming pretty much everyone’s expectations. It’s ahistorical to fail to recall the position Pita and Move Forward were in at a comparable time period prior to the 2023 election. This points to the difficulties opposition parties in most democratic countries have in attracting the attention of voters, until the election campaign period gets under way.
3. You correctly state that one of Bumjaithai’s strategies to increase their vote is to prove that they are “a credible party of government.” While they initially certainly looked more credible than Thaksin’s Pheu Thai government (not hard to do), one can hardly regard their performance in recent weeks as being anything near credible. The claims that BJT’s response to the scam crisis is nothing much more than performative are growing by the day, not to mention the surely significant hit the seeming mismanagement of the response to the southern floods has had for the party’s credibility. There surely is a high likelihood that BJT’s support has taken a significant hit, not just in the south but throughout Thailand as the voters look on with interest to see how Anutin performs now he’s in the spotlight.
4. You’ve been quite critical, perhaps rightly, of the PP decision to enable BJT to form a government. You were right to point to the risks the PP were taking but perhaps did not give sufficient weight to the PP’s priority of creating or at least taking any opportunity available to them to push for reform of Thailand’s constitution. Given the credibility of the BJT government has taken a major hit over recent weeks, the PP’s enabling of the BJT government may in retrospect be seen as a masterstroke, whether intentional or not. It’s a highly unusual situation for a party which was in opposition to be given the keys to Government House for a time limited period. It has given the BJT the opportunity to shine, but it seems more and more likely that they are squandering this, all whilst the nation looks on and no doubt makes its own judgement.
Hi David, thanks for your insightful comment. In the piece I only make comparisons to how the MFP performed regionally, so as to keep the comparison apples to apples. But when I say that this is further evidence of their underperformance compared to 2023, I'm referring back to NIDA's national polling released in September, which includes Bangkok. (https://www.coffeeparliament.com/p/analyzing-initial-polling-results) I certainly agree with you that there is still an entire election campaign to run, which is why I emphasize that this is the baseline from which we're starting rather than a prediction of how the PP will end up performing. Time will tell on points 3 and 4! Thanks for reading and I appreciate you taking the time to write out this thoughtful response.
Perhaps a more nuanced perspective needs to be applied to some of your analysis:
1. You claim that even though the People’s Party remains on top, they are underperforming against where they were in 2023. Given the large number of undecided voters, this is almost certainly true. But there are other factors to consider. You do not specify the denominator for 2023. Is the data you are referring to for ‘where the PP was in 2023’ an opinion poll some months out from the election or the actual election result? If you are comparing the results of the NIDA regional polling to the 2023 actual election result, it needs to be kept in mind that the NIDA polling does not include Bangkok, where the PP won all but one seat at the last election. Also, the large number of undecided voters are likely to make up their minds one way or the other by the time of the election, with a reasonable likelihood of many of them deciding to support the PP.
2. If you go back to the time when Thailand was about four months out from the 2023 election, Pita Limjaroenrat actually didn’t have a particularly high profile. He even attracted public criticism from one of the co-founders of the Future Forward Party for his low profile, with the accompanying prediction of Move Forward losing votes at the forthcoming election. As things turned out, Khun Pita ran a brilliant election campaign, outperforming pretty much everyone’s expectations. It’s ahistorical to fail to recall the position Pita and Move Forward were in at a comparable time period prior to the 2023 election. This points to the difficulties opposition parties in most democratic countries have in attracting the attention of voters, until the election campaign period gets under way.
3. You correctly state that one of Bumjaithai’s strategies to increase their vote is to prove that they are “a credible party of government.” While they initially certainly looked more credible than Thaksin’s Pheu Thai government (not hard to do), one can hardly regard their performance in recent weeks as being anything near credible. The claims that BJT’s response to the scam crisis is nothing much more than performative are growing by the day, not to mention the surely significant hit the seeming mismanagement of the response to the southern floods has had for the party’s credibility. There surely is a high likelihood that BJT’s support has taken a significant hit, not just in the south but throughout Thailand as the voters look on with interest to see how Anutin performs now he’s in the spotlight.
4. You’ve been quite critical, perhaps rightly, of the PP decision to enable BJT to form a government. You were right to point to the risks the PP were taking but perhaps did not give sufficient weight to the PP’s priority of creating or at least taking any opportunity available to them to push for reform of Thailand’s constitution. Given the credibility of the BJT government has taken a major hit over recent weeks, the PP’s enabling of the BJT government may in retrospect be seen as a masterstroke, whether intentional or not. It’s a highly unusual situation for a party which was in opposition to be given the keys to Government House for a time limited period. It has given the BJT the opportunity to shine, but it seems more and more likely that they are squandering this, all whilst the nation looks on and no doubt makes its own judgement.
Hi David, thanks for your insightful comment. In the piece I only make comparisons to how the MFP performed regionally, so as to keep the comparison apples to apples. But when I say that this is further evidence of their underperformance compared to 2023, I'm referring back to NIDA's national polling released in September, which includes Bangkok. (https://www.coffeeparliament.com/p/analyzing-initial-polling-results) I certainly agree with you that there is still an entire election campaign to run, which is why I emphasize that this is the baseline from which we're starting rather than a prediction of how the PP will end up performing. Time will tell on points 3 and 4! Thanks for reading and I appreciate you taking the time to write out this thoughtful response.