In recent weeks, speculation that Kla Tham is set to join the Bhumjaithai-led government coalition has ramped up after the party was expelled from the opposition whip. Things now appear more complicated as the latest reports suggest that Bhumjaithai may actually be demanding a complete party merger.
On October 15, Punjab Grill Bangkok released a photo of Anutin and Thammanat dining together, along with the prominent Bhumjaithai MP Chada Thaiseth. Reporters did not appear to have noticed until October 17, when multiple news agencies began reporting about this photo but noting that they actually dined together in the preceding week. (This sequence of events suggests that an insider may have timed their notification to journalists). And then, on October 19, veteran newscaster Sorayuth Suthassanachinda reported that there were rumors about discussions on merging Kla Tham into Bhumjaithai.
Anutin has so far refused to commit to seeing out a party merger, saying only that he will do whatever is needed to strengthen the government and maximize its stability. In part this is simply smart politics: party mergers are technically illegal under the 2017 constitution, although that hasn’t stopped them from happening in practice.1 There’s no question that it can happen if Anutin and Thammanat want it to. But do they?
As I’ve written before, I still don’t quite understand why Anutin feels the need to enlarge his coalition right now, given that Pheu Thai has largely played ball with Bhumjaithai and this will only complicate the distribution of ministerial posts in any future reshuffle (assuming that Pheu Thai isn’t removed entirely). But there is a completely different logic that underpins Bhumjaithai subsuming Kla Tham itself. NationWeekend wrote (citing anonymous sources) that Bhumjaithai is concerned about the potential growth of Kla Tham, which led their “headmaster” to say that if Kla Tham truly wants to join the coalition, they should be willing to merge fully into Bhumjaithai. This would follow the same model that was applied to the Chart Thai Pattana Party, where former party leader Varawut Silpa-archa and all of the party’s MPs left his family inheritance to join Bhumjaithai. With everyone under the same party banner, goes the logic, factions are easier to manage and MPs are more likely to stay in line.
The addition of Kla Tham into Bhumjaithai would also open the way up for an even more dominant performance on the constituency ballot for the latter in the future. The two parties were fierce competitors in several constituencies, especially in Southern Thailand. Eliminating Kla Tham as a party would consolidate this vote bloc further, making it even more difficult for other parties like the People’s Party, Pheu Thai, or the Democrats to challenge Bhumjaithai in some areas.
At the same time, however, there are also major costs for Bhumjaithai. Kla Tham, as everyone is aware, does not necessarily have the best party brand image. Its current position as a coalition-member-in-waiting allows Bhumjaithai to continually place subtle pressure on Pheu Thai to remain in line, leverage that may be lost if it is brought into Bhumjaithai itself. It’s also unclear that Bhumjaithai, already in unwieldy shape due to the rapid rise in the number of local factions that have attached themselves to the party, can absorb Kla Tham without finding party management an impossibly difficult task, especially if Thammanat develops his own power base among Bhumjaithai’s MPs.And does Anutin truly have enough cabinet seats to spare for Kla Tham’s MPs without sparking a revolt from his own rank and file?
Already, there were rumors this week that Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun would be removed from office at the next reshuffle. The prime minister was forced to deny these rumors, saying that Suphajee is one of the “pillars” of the government and that he would have to go if she were to go. Yet the “technocrats” are perhaps the most vulnerable members in the government, lacking a base among MPs. Which constituency can Anutin afford to alienate, then?
Fundamentally, we also don’t know if Thammanat even wants to join another party. In 2024, Thammanat made a “declaration of independence” when he broke away from Prawit Wongsuwan’s Palang Pracharath Party, and since then his own political venture has become stunningly successful.2 Would he be happy to leave a home over which he is the master to become only one of many faction leaders in Bhumjaithai (albeit the most powerful one)? Indeed, is Bhumjaithai intentionally making an offer they intend to be refused?
We will likely get a clearer picture on the Kla Tham situation after the next no-confidence debate, where observers are waiting to see if Kla Tham votes en masse to support Bhumjaithai’s ministers despite not being in government. If they do, that will be another unmistakable sign of friendship. If they do not, then perhaps a nice dinner at an Indian restaurant was not sufficient to secure Thammanat’s decision to abandon his own party.
Instead of merging the party organizations together, which is no longer possible, all party leaders from one party simply resign and join the other party. It is a bit more complicated for sitting MPs, who have to be officially expelled from their previous party in order to join another one without losing their MP status.
This wasn’t a given. Thammanat previously formed the Thai Economic Party in 2022, and it didn’t take off.