Anutin's Second Term is Confirmed
The opposition remains fragmented
No surprises today: as expected, Anutin Charnvirakul was re-elected as prime minister in the House of Representatives.
Given that the result was a foregone conclusion, this vote is useful mainly as an exercise in evaluating the strength of the government coalition and the opposition. The coalition has 292 MPs1, while the opposition has 207 MPs. Anutin received 293 votes, while the People’s Party leader Natthaphong Rueangpanyawut received 116 votes. 86 MPs abstained.
What explains the slight discrepancies? Six MPs from the Thai Ruam Palang Party, which is not in the coalition, decided to back Anutin. Of the two MPs in the Thai Sang Thai Party, which is in the coalition, one decided to abstain. There had been rumors that there were a number of PP MPs who were considering becoming “cobras”2 and supporting Anutin. In the end, one PP MP voted for Anutin, while the rest voted for Natthaphong. Anutin, Natthaphong, the speaker and the deputy speakers all abstained.
MPs had the opportunity to voice their thoughts on the two candidates in the lead-up to the vote. Pheu Thai leader Julapun Amornvivat’s speech in support of Anutin felt strangely lukewarm. He refused to discuss the candidates’ qualities, saying that he is not in a position to judge who is “good or bad.” He instead made an appeal based on parliamentary arithmetic, saying that Bhumjaithai had won significantly more MPs than the second and third largest parties. The PP MP Rangsiman Rome launched a mini-no confidence debate on Anutin, which was heavily protested by coalition MPs.
Fragmented opposition
While the PP was largely united behind Natthaphong, the rest of the opposition clearly remains fragmented, something that had previously been indicated during the vote for speaker. Like in that vote, both Kla Tham and the Democrat Party abstained instead of voting for either the Bhumjaithai or PP candidate.
Kla Tham had previously played coy about what it would do regarding the PM vote. Captain Thammanat Promphao had affirmed his friendship with Anutin, saying that he would “never kill his boss or sell out his friends” but refused to say if he would vote for Anutin for prime minister, saying that he must separate the personal and the political. The party also indicated earlier in the week that it was considering nominating Thammanat to compete for the post. In the end, however, the party decided to abstain. In his speech to parliament, Kla Tham MP Atthakorn Sirilatthayakorn said, “Today [Anutin] has forgotten his friend named Captain Thammanat. I don’t mind, but I ask for one thing. Today he has almost two hundred votes. Don’t forget the problems of the people.”
The Democrat Party announced one day before the vote that it had scrutinized the profiles of both candidates and decided that abstaining was “necessary and important.” (This marks the fourth consecutive time that the Democrats have decided to abstain in a PM vote!) Abhisit Vejjajiva argued that both Anutin and Natthaphong were facing pending legal cases (collusion in the Senate selection process for the former and supporting amendment of lese-majeste for the latter) and that it must be clear a prime minister has no issues with their ethical conduct. He did note that an abstention was not a signal that the Democrats were waiting to enter government: “I have been in the opposition for almost the longest of anyone in parliament…[I will] truly, not just scrutinizing to generate content.” (The latter sounds like a swipe towards the PP).
It is worth noting that both parties’ MPs were completely united in abstaining, showing that there are yet no “cobras” from these two parties who are seeking to support the government.
Thai Pakdee’s sole MP, Warong Dechgitvigrom, became an internet sensation after he spoke (admittedly off-topic) proposed ending the provision of free food for MPs and reducing the number of MP assistants during the speaker’s vote. He abstained in this vote, saying Anutin needed to show he would be an anti-corruption leader and the stop the practice of free food in parliament. Seri Ruam Thai leader Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, on the other hand, voted for Natthaphong.
Anutin will now move to officially assemble his new cabinet. The latest reports suggest that the cabinet lineup is “99.5 percent” settled. He will want to move quickly to finalize his government, as the powers his interim cabinet possesses is limited, restricting its ability to deal with the increasingly serious energy shock. It will be a formidable first challenge for a second term.
Anutin gained two new MPs from the United Thai Nation Party, which has freshly joined the Bhumjaithai coalition following the resignation of party leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga from parliament. Pirapan’s replacement, Atavit Suwanpakdee, said that the party would back Bhumjaithai in order to get support for legislation on solar cells and credit bureau reform that he wanted to propose.
Thai political parlance for defectors.