Military Conflict with Cambodia

Thai civilian areas along border targeted by Cambodia

Royal Thai Army statement. (Credits: Royal Thai Army Facebook Page)

Thailand and Cambodia have once again made the international headlines after a day in which open conflict broke out between the two countries. In the days leading up to open hostilities, several Thai soldiers patrolling the border area were injured by land mines, eventually leading Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai to downgrade diplomatic relations and recall the Cambodian ambassador. Then today, according to the Thai government, Cambodian forces opened fire on Thai forces in the morning¹, which was followed by artillery bombardment of border areas, including BM-21 rockets fired at civilian communities. In response, the Royal Thai Army has activated the Chakrabongse Bhuvanath Plan, a military plan aimed at defending Thailand’s eastern border, and launched Operation Yuttha Bodin, which the Thai Enquirer describes as “a coordinated land and air offensive aimed at defending Thai sovereignty.” This has included F-16 fighter jets launching attacks on Cambodian military targets along the border.

As of the time of writing military operations are still active, so more time is needed to assess the results of this conflict. However, I think that two uncertainties are worth noting at the outset.

Firstly, we still have no concrete explanation for Cambodia’s actions. This is the question that is on everyone’s minds, but unfortunately we simply do not have a satisfactory answer. Just as we still do not have a proven hypothesis for why Hun Sen leaked his phone call with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, we do not know why this conflict has escalated to this point. After all, it does not appear to make logical sense for Cambodia to engage in a conventional military conflict with Thailand. As CNN noted, “Thailand’s military dwarfs that of neighboring Cambodia, both in personnel and weaponry.” The costs of conflict over small pieces of disputed border areas have now surely outweighed the benefits that Hun Sen could gain.

Could the inter-family dispute between Hun Sen and the Shinawatras truly have led things to this point? (This is what seemed to be the driving factor behind the tensions, but as Hun Sen’s voice call leak showed, there are many ways to hurt the Shinawatras that don’t require open warfare). Is it an attempt to paint his successor, the titular Prime Minister Hun Manet, as a capable military leader? (Perhaps, but Hun Sen has portrayed himself as in command). Or is it a way to stoke nationalism and increase the regime’s popularity? (I’m no expert on the Kreminology of politics in Phnom Penh, but my understanding is that Hun Sen faces few domestic threats currently and the next election is still years away). In short, we will have to wait to find out what exactly is driving Cambodia’s calculations — indeed, if we ever do find out.

What is even more confusing is why Cambodia decided to target civilian areas, adding even more questions as to what Hun Sen’s goals are and why he deems those goals worth these costs. As of the time of writing, twelve Thais — eleven of them civilians — have been killed. According to the army, a hospital near the border was attacked. BM-21s are low in precision and the Cambodian military may not have explicitly decided to target hospitals but simply ended up hitting one due to being unable to precisely aim at certain targets. But targeting areas where civilians live with imprecise weapons is a serious matter in itself, and as Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsuthin said, attacking a hospital is “serious violation of international humanitarian law and the Geneva Conventions.” (Somsak labelled this action as a war crime). Verapat Pariyawong posted, “Cambodia wants to go to the ICJ, but may end up going to the ICC instead.”

Secondly, we still do not know how the escalation of this conflict will impact Thai domestic politics moving forward. Thailand is in a curious situation — it is now in a military conflict with no real prime minister (Paetongtarn Shinawatra remains suspended) and no defense minister (Deputy Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit is serving in an acting capacity). In short, Thai politics is at its most dysfunctional right now. As if to demonstrate this state of disarray, “national clerk” Thaksin Shinawatra personally accused Hun Sen in a tweet of ordering the attacks and proclaiming that the Thai army “can respond in accordance with military plans with legitimacy". (It comes awfully close to sounding like he was giving instructions to the military).²

I do not think that this will necessarily lead to a rally-around-the-flag effect in favor of the Pheu Thai government. There is continued criticism of how the government has seemed to move slowly in countering Cambodia’s narratives, and of how Phumtham has characterized the conflict as “merely a clash.” The writer Kornkit Disathan also criticized the government for not investing in information operations. (The government has attempted to counter the first criticism by showing that Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa was already at the United Nations in New York to explain Thailand’s stance to the international stage). At the same time, however, an announcement of a new anti-government protest on July 27 was also heavily criticized by netizens (see comments on the linked post).

What is certain is that because it has now caused civilian deaths, today’s conflict will lead to a more decisive long-term shift in public sentiment against Cambodia. Few Thais were openly clamoring for conflict, but public anger has been building up over the past few weeks and today it has exploded. In a classic work of international relations, political scientist James Fearon argued that democracies with higher audience costs are less able to back down in an international confrontation. The audience costs are now sky-high in Thailand, and the embattled government — already perceived after the leaked phone call as weak on national security — will surely be keenly aware that it cannot afford another misstep in resolving this conflict. Phumtham has stated that there can be no return to negotiations until conflict has stopped. In this process, the Thai public will be keeping a close watch at what the government successfully defends the national interest.

1. Cambodia disputes this account and claims that the Thai army opened fire first. In response to these claims, the Royal Thai Army has released a detailed account. The RTA has been using the hashtag #CambodiaOpenedFire on social media.

2. We also had a strange statement from the Pheu Thai Party urging the government to assist people in the affected areas (apparently ignoring the fact that Pheu Thai is the current party of government).