"Agong Regime", Thaksin Pardon, Thai Chuay Thai Scheme | Morning Coffee Briefing

Also, some controversy over state welfare card plans

Good morning from The Coffee Parliament. Here is your Morning Coffee Briefing for this week, with some updates on the Bangkok elections, a pardon for Thaksin Shinawatra, and the launch of a popular new economic scheme.

1. “Agong Regime" allegations put heat on Chadchart

Last week, I wrote that Chadchart Sittipunt is “virtually guaranteed” to win re-election as Bangkok governor. His competitors are going to try their best to make it as hard as possible for him, however, and in the past week we saw the first major challenge mounted against the incumbent governor. New allegations have been made on the existence of the “Agong Regime” or “Agong System.” What is an agong, you ask? It is a Teochew term referring to a grandfather. The Economic Party, which is running a candidate for governor, has alleged that a network exists where candidates for district administrators must meet with a certain individual and provide a quid pro quo to receive the office, along with other instances of corruption within the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration. Daily News has summarized all the allegations of corruption made here.

Attention on the “agong” has centered on Torsak Chotimongkol, the 69 year old former chairman of the board of advisors to the Governor of Bangkok under Chadchart. Torsak is known to be close to Chadchart and has worked with him since 2020 when Chadchart decided to run for governor, and he was nicknamed by the governor’s team as agong. Torsak firmly denied the existence of an “Agong Regime” (and so does Chadchart), and he is considering taking legal action. This hasn’t stopped Chadchart’s opponents from seizing on this issue, however. The People’s Party’s Chaiwat Sathawornwichit argued that corruption within the appointment system is indeed an issue, saying that “if the head does not shake, the tail would not move.” The Democrat candidate, Anucha Burapachaisri, made similar remarks.

These criticisms represent the first time that the popular governor has been attacked so directly during this campaign. Will it make a dent? A recent NIDA poll (fielded between June 2-4, so slightly before the Agong Regime allegations began coming out) found that Chadchart has the support of 67 percent of respondents, with Chaiwat trailing far behind at around 7 percent. This isn’t quite Assad margins, but it is approaching some pretty unassailable territory. Unless the Agong allegations really cut through, Chadchart will still be sailing towards re-election.

2. Thaksin Shinawatra pardoned

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was recently released from prison on parole, has received another royal pardon which immediately ended his probation. This pardon was issued on the occasion of Her Majesty the Queen’s birthday celebrations. As a result, Thaksin was able to remove his electronic monitoring ankle bracelet.

Thai media have reported that Thaksin is likely to soon travel to Dubai, with a telltale sign being that he does not plan to hold his customary birthday celebrations at his Chan Song Lah residence this year on July 26. It thus appears that Thaksin intends to keep a low public profile, unlike during the Pheu Thai government from 2023 to 2025 when he frequently made political statements. That should give Yodchanan Wongsawat, the new face of Pheu Thai, some breathing room to refresh the party’s image. See more here for my thoughts on what feels like the end of the Thaksin era.

3. Thai Chuay Thai scheme launches

The Thai Chuay Thai scheme launched last week. This is the successor program to Khon La Khrueng (“Let’s Go Halves”), the Prayut-era scheme where the government subsidized half the cost of payments at participating SMEs. An enormously popular policy, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul revived it during his first term last year, and promised to continue it after being re-elected. Instead of continuing the Khon La Khrueng branding, however, the Bhumjaithai government has made the scheme their own by rebranding it to Thai Chuay Thai (“Thais Help Thais”) and having the government subsidize 60 percent of the cost of payments.

By all accounts, the scheme is once again enormously popular, with 26 million people registering for the program and over 21 million actual users during the first week. There are concerns from economists, however, that this scheme will only temporarily inject demand into the economy, and the government will likely need to find other measures to continue alleviating the increasing cost of living due to the global energy crisis.

At the same time, the Ministry of Finance is moving ahead with stricter rules for holders of the state welfare card (commonly called the “poor people card”), which allows low-income Thai citizens to access a range of benefits. Finance Minister Ekniti Nititanpraphas wants to ensure that those who are not truly in dire economic straits are not included in this scheme. Expect more criticism on how the government implements these checks. Already, Anutin has reportedly put a brake on plans to use whether a parent is included on their children’s tax returns deductions as a criterion to prevent them from accessing the state welfare card.