Land Bridge and Coalition Rumors | Morning Coffee Briefing
Is the land bridge gone? Is the coalition secure?
Good morning from The Coffee Parliament. My apologies that there was no newsletter last week; it’s been a bit of a busy period for me! Today we’ll take a look at the cancellation of the Land Bridge project in southern Thailand and some rumors about the state of the government coalition.
Land Bridge to nowhere?
Because this update is being sent out late, you probably have already heard that Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanpraphas announced the termination of the Land Bridge project. We’ve been discussing the Land Bridge for a few months now, and up until Ekniti’s announcement government figures from Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul down have seemed pretty resolute in their public commitments to make this happen. But according to Ekniti, feasibility studies have shown that the project requires too expensive an investment, involves risks too high, and will cause too much environmental damage.
Anutin himself threw in a curveball, however, by saying that the government has not given up on the Land Bridge: if the need arises or the geopolitical situation demands it, they can simply dust the plan and bring it back. What is clear is that the government will still look to make some form of infrastructural upgrade to southern Thailand’s connectivity. Ekniti said that the government will instead be prioritizing a project called the “Missing Link,” where an existing sea port in Ranong province will be upgraded and connected to Chumphon province with a railway line.
Hmm, doesn’t that sound familiar? Critics, as this Bangkok Post editorial notes, argue that “the Missing Link appears to be little more than a scaled-down version of the Land Bridge.” The opposition parties are looking at this new project with scrutiny, with Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva proposing a Songkhla to Penang route instead. But Tita Sanglee at The Diplomat argues that this project “makes structural sense” (her piece is worth reading in full as it is a great summary of the land bridge situation). There is guaranteed to be plenty of debate on whether or not the Missing Link is a better alternative to the Land Bridge.
Coalition rumors
The Kla Tham Party has been quiet since the general election, after it was denied an opportunity to join the Bhumjaithai-led government coalition. But the party leader Captain Thammanat Promphao broke his relative silence to deny online rumors that he recently met former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Monaco to discuss a change in prime minister. Thammanat said that while it is true that he has visited Monaco, it was a trip with his family; if anyone checked Thaksin’s traveling record they would know he had not visited Monaco. “There is no Monaco deal,” he said. Anutin laughed off these rumors, responding that “red and green mixing together would still yield dark blue.” Meanwhile, former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra also posted on Instagram: “I’m here on vacation to relax. No secret deal. The only deal is the deal with my children.”
The rumors of a Pheu Thai - Kla Tham deal is strange because it would be impossible for the two parties to form a viable coalition together without including either Bhumjaithai or the People’s Party. It is still far more likely, in my view, that Kla Tham is being kept in reserve so that, in the event of a breakdown in relations between Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai, Anutin has an alternative coalition partner he can turn to (which would produce a slim but workable government majority).
What I find more interesting are the continual rumors that there is infighting within the Bhumjaithai Party, which would be a more immediate threat to the coalition’s stability. (We covered some sources of tension within the Bhumjaithai government here a few weeks ago). Anutin has sought to dispel rumors that there is conflict between the “2 Ns” (Nhu aka Anutin’s nickname and Newin Chidchob) and “1 P” (Deputy Prime Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn) by posting a picture together. “#NNP relations are as ruptured as a Crème Brûlée,” he wrote on Facebook. (Someone tell me what that means — I can’t keep up!)
Where there is no fire, of course, there shouldn’t be any smoke — so we’ll have to keep our eyes on this front.